Thursday, July 31, 2014

Pattern Lock!

Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to the last day of July. Current temperatures in Warren County have reached 81 degrees, with dew points hovering around 50 and a few clouds over our area.
We are stuck in quite the unusual pattern for summer. A trough locked into the eastern half of the country, along with an amplified ridge in the west, is providing us here in Bowling Green, with some below average temperatures. This same pattern will persist for the next several days, into next week.
250mb heights and winds map valid for Sunday morning. This map gives us a great example of the meridional flow we have been seeing this summer. 

This weekend will be marked with a weak low pressure system moving to our south providing us with some rain chances. Best chances of rain will be on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. By next week, I expect a warm up with temperatures in the 90s, as our jet stream becomes more zonal. After this I believe we will be seeing more below average temperatures with an active jet stream around us again.

Long Range Forecast (Forecast Confidence 60%)
My current thinking, in the long range, is this meridional pattern will persist into much of August. Current teleconnections suggest a strong positive reading of the PNA meaning a strong dip in the jet stream around us, much like what we have been seeing this summer. A negative AO index, which is another teleconnection, suggests cooler than normal temps as well. A much milder than normal August is what I am forecasting, with much of what we have been seeing this month. If this pattern does pan out then we could be seeing some much needed rain in our area during August!

Days at a Glance
Friday - High of 88 with a low of 60. A few clouds developing into the afternoon.

Saturday - High of 86 with a low of 62. Cloudy with a few rain showers into the afternoon and evening. Precip chance: 30%

Sunday - High of 87 with a low of 64. A few showers in the early morning but clearing into the day. Mostly sunny skies for the day.

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

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