Sunday, September 21, 2014

Beautiful Week Ahead

Forecast:
Sunday has shaped up to be a very nice day with a high temperature topping out at 85°F. A weak cold front passed through the southeast this afternoon which will have a greater chance to change the temperatures for the next few days. The image below shows the cold front that passed through this afternoon and the region of high pressure that will fall in behind it.
                                           Surface conditions(4pm Sun. Sept. 21, 2014) Courtesty: NOAA 

The wind has shifted to a northern wind following the passage of the front. This will bring cooler temperatures to the region beginning later tonight and continuing for the next several days. Clouds will begin to form as the sun sets, but should clear by early Monday morning. This cloud cover will keep the overnight temperatures from plummeting into the 40s. Monday morning a broad area of high pressure will set up just west of the Mississippi River. This area of high pressure will keep SOKY under clear skies through Wednesday. The cooler temperatures associated with this trough will begin to be noticeable on Monday with the high only reaching 71°F. Overnight cooling due to these clear skies will bring some of the coldest temperatures seen yet this fall. The layer of clouds that usually keeps the warm air escaping from the ground near the surface will not be around, allowing this warm air to escape and causing the low temperatures to drop to a chilly 43°.



Week at a Glance:
Sunday Night: Low - 51°F with no chance for rain. Light wind out of the north.

Monday: High - 71°F with sunny skies for most of the day. Winds 5-10 mph out of the north.

Monday Night: Low - 45°F with clear skies. Light wind out of the north continues.

Tuesday: High- 75°F under sunny skies. Winds increasing to 5 mph from the NE.

Tuesday Night: Low - 43°F under clear skies. Winds around 5 mph out of the NE.

Wednesday: High - 79°F under mostly clear skies. Low near 52°F.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Storms Possible Late This Weekend

Discussion:

Currently our temperatures are in the middles 70s as we are on our way to wrapping up a gorgeous day in southern Kentucky. Another chilly night is expected overnight as mostly clear skies will help our low temperatures dip into the lower 50s. Expect much of the same for Friday, although mid-level ridging will allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. This means that we may make a run at hitting a high of 80º for the first time since last Thursday. Temperatures will dip down to around 60º under clear skies tomorrow night. Check out this map showing Friday's high temperature predictions from the GFS model, notice the warmer air moving in from the southwest.
12Z GFS 10m Wind, Temp, & MSLP (Courtesy: NOAA)
An upper-level low will attempt to push the strong ridge responsible for our quiet weather off to the east later this weekend. Ahead of this upper-level trough, surface winds will turn to the south and usher in slightly warmer temperatures. Skies will be partly cloudy on Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop to our east on Saturday evening and slowly move east. While we should stay dry through most of the overnight period, we will see an increase in cloud cover overnight as the precipitation edges closer. Mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures mild with lows only falling into the middle 60s. By daybreak on Sunday, weakening showers and thunderstorms along a surface cold front will be pushing their way southeast across southern Kentucky. The overnight/early morning timing of these storms will limit the amount of instability they have to work with, but moderate wind shear along the front could help to produce a few strong thunderstorms. As the front continues to push southeast, we could see additional showers and storms re-initiate along the frontal boundary during our peak heating in the afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe as well. Precipitation chances will come to an end by Sunday night as our surface winds turn to the west and usher in cooler temperatures.

Tonight: Low - 54º Skies - Mostly Clear.
Winds - NW at 2-5mph.

Friday: High - 82º Low - 60º Skies - Mostly Clear.
Winds - E at 3-5mph.

Saturday: High - 85º Low - 65º Skies - Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.
Precipitation: 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Winds - S at 5-10mph.

Sunday: High - 82º Low - 58º Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy overnight.
Precipitation: 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the day.
Winds - W at 3-7mph.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor