Sunday, October 19, 2014

Quiet Weather Settling In

Today has been quite the Sunday, with calm winds, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low 60's. This sun has felt great after a period of mostly cloudy skies this past week or so. Tomorrow will feature a few small rain chances, but starting Tuesday, clear skies will be the main story.
A disturbance will move through the area tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will accompany this upper level low, but the best shot for rain will be just to our north and east.
21
NAM Simulated Reflectivity 10 AM Tomorrow
A cold front will swing through the state tomorrow evening and bring with it another shot for some light showers. Any shower activity will be light and many areas may not see rain at all. Once again the biggest threat for rain will be to our north and east.
NWS Surface Map Monday Evening
NWS Surface Map Monday Evening
Behind that front will be an area of high pressure settling in. This will keep the area mostly sunny and dry for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year. Here is the 6 - 10 day probability of below average precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center, with Bowling Green in the greater than 60% chance for below average precip.
CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation
CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation
 
5 Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind.
Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind 3 to 5 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Clear Conditions for Weekend

It has been a rainy first half of the week here in Bowling Green, but it has also been a rainy first half to the month.  We have already had almost 5 inches of rain in just this first half of October, and over half of that fell this week! So, some clearer conditions are definitely overdue.  The good news is that that is exactly what we have in store for this weekend.

The low pressure system that brought us so many days of rain will continues to become cutoff and push off to the northeast and off the coast.  Then, as shown in the 250 mb map above, a more zonal upper level flow is going to settle in and clear conditions are going to dominate much of the US.  As shown in the graphic below, we will have a weak cold front move through on Friday afternoon and evening, but it is not expected to bring us any rain.

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Fri 18Z

As we be take a break from all this rain, you will not be needing your umbrella this weekend.  However, you may want to keep your jacket handy.  Our average high temperature for mid-October is 71°.  Tomorrow we are actually going to exceed that, but this weekend we will be back down into the 60s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the south at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly sunny skies, highs near 77°, and winds out of the SSW at around 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Saturday:  Mostly sunny skies, high near 64°, and winds out of the northwest at around 5-7 mph.

Saturday Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 39°, and light winds out of the NNW.

Sunday:  Sunny skies, highs near 61°, and winds out of the north at around 3-5 mph.



Forecaster: Arden Gregory