Thursday, October 30, 2014

Colder Weather Expected in Bowling Green

Discussion:

Good morning, we are off to a chilly start today as current temperatures are still hovering in the middle 40s as of 9 A.M. CST. A trough is currently positioned over the eastern U.S. in the upper levels of the atmosphere which is keeping a cooler air mass in place over Kentucky. Surface high pressure currently centered over the Ohio Valley will help to keep our weather calm today. Expect temperatures to make a run for the 60° mark this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Forecast valid Thursday 18Z
Surface analysis forecast valid at 1 P.M. CST (Courtesy: WPC)
A shortwave will begin moving through this upper-level trough tonight and this will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air as well as a few shower chances. Expect skies to become mostly cloudy after midnight tonight with a few isolated showers possible before daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures are expected to reach the lower 40s. A surface cold front associated with the shortwave trough will move across the state on Friday as our rain chances continue. Surface winds will turn to the northwest behind the front and windy conditions are expected with sustained winds reaching 15mph. Isolated showers are possible throughout the day although this will not be an all day rain event, any precipitation will be very spotty. Drier air will works its way into the region Friday night and this will bring an end to any showers overnight. As of right now, total rainfall on Friday looks to remain below 0.1″. Colder air takes hold of the region Friday night with low temperatures expected to reach the freezing mark.

Surface high pressure will build back into our area from the west on Saturday and we can expect calm weather as a result. Post-frontal winds will still be strong and when these winds are combined with high temperatures only reaching the upper 40s, it will feel pretty cold on Saturday.Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s on Saturday night under mostly clear skies. It looks very likely that we will see our coldest temperatures of the season Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will only be a few degrees warmer than Saturday.

Forecast: 

Today: High - 59º Low - 42º Winds - Light and variable.
Chance of Precipitation - 20% chance of showers after midnight.
Skies - Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

Friday: High - 52º Low - 32º Winds - NW at 10-20mph.
Chance of Precipitation - 40% chance of rain showers. Rainfall amounts <0.1"
Skies - Mostly Cloudy

Saturday: High - 47º Low - 28º Winds - NW at 5-15mph.
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies - Mostly Clear

Sunday: High - 52º Low - 37º Winds - E at 3-5mph.
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies- Partly Cloudy

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

Monday, October 27, 2014

Changes Coming for Bowling Green Weather

Discussion:

Good afternoon, we saw another warm day across southern Kentucky today with the Bowling Green Airport reaching a high temperature of 83º. Currently an area of surface low pressure associated with an upper level trough is located in Central Wisconsin. A cold front is draped to the southwest and this front will push east overnight. Ahead of this cold front, we are seeing winds out of the south in Kentucky as a low-level jet is present ahead of the cold front. These southerly winds will keep temperatures mild overnight with lows only falling into the lower 60s under partly cloudy skies.

The cold front is expected to be situated just northwest of the Ohio River by daybreak tomorrow. Winds will be breezy with southerly winds around 10-15mph. A line of showers and storms is expected to form along the cold front and push into Kentucky by mid-morning on Tuesday. These storms look to move into Warren County between noon and 4pm tomorrow and a few of these storms could be strong to severe although the greatest threat for severe weather looks to lie just to the east of I-65. Depending on cloud cover tomorrow morning, marginal instability looks to be in place over southern Kentucky by midday tomorrow with some decent wind shear present along the cold front. This means that we could see a few storms produce damaging winds and hail tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s tomorrow before the precipitation moves in. Behind the initial line of storms we will see some shower and thunderstorm activity through the afternoon before rain comes to an end tomorrow evening. At this time it looks like precipitation amounts will be around 0.5". The SPC has placed our area on the edge of a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, with a slight risk to our north and east.
Day 2 Convective Outlook valid on Tuesday 10/28 (Courtesy: SPC)

Winds will shift to the west overnight on Tuesday behind the cold front and skies will become partly cloudy after midnight with low temperatures falling into the upper 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday resulting in calm weather and partly cloudy skies. Conditions will be colder behind the front and highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s with lows falling into the upper 30s overnight. While calm weather should continue on Thursday, a reinforcing shot of colder air will rotate through the upper-level trough and result in high temperatures only reaching the 50s.

Forecast:
Tonight: Low - 61º Winds - S at 5-10mph
Chance of Precipitation - 10%
Skies - Partly Cloudy

Tuesday: High - 73º Low - 48º Winds - S at 10-15mph becoming W at 5-10mph
Chance of Precipitation - 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day. A few storms could be severe. Total Rainfall ~ 0.5"
Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy Overnight.

Wednesday: High - 64º Low - 38º Winds - WNW at 3-7mph.
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies - Partly Cloudy

Thursday: High - 59º Low - 41º Winds - Calm
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies- Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy Overnight.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor