Saturday, December 7, 2013

Round 2: Saturday Night/Sunday Morning Ice Potential

As promised, we wanted to provide an update concerning the 2nd round of wintry precipitation which is expected overnight and into Sunday morning. The NWS in Louisville has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Warren County from 11 pm tonight until 2 pm Sunday for potential icing. This round is expected to have greater impacts than yesterday's minor icing event.

Event Outline:
Timing: 11 pm Saturday - 10 am Sunday
Hazard: Freezing rain/ice possibly mixed with sleet early
Amount: 0.10" - 0.20" of ice accretion; minor sleet accumulation possible
Impacts: Roads surfaces could become icy thus impacting travel early Sunday morning. No tree, etc damage is expected.

High Resolution NAM indicates a scattered area of light freezing rain across much of south-central Kentucky at 4 am Sunday morning.
Discussion: Yet another round of freezing rain/ice is expected to begin this evening between 11 pm - 2 am in association with a another weather disturbance. Precipitation could start out as freezing drizzle as early as 11 pm and then pick up in intensity to light freezing rain (possibly mixed with sleet) around or just after 2 am. The precipitation will move in from the south to the north. Temperatures will already be below freezing when precipitation moves in, very unlike our previous round of wintry weather. In fact, temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s as precipitation begins creating the potential for quick ice accumulation. Furthermore, temperatures will be below freezing or at freezing for over 24 hours leading up to tonight's event since temperatures are only expected to reach 32 for a high today. This means that road temperatures will be much colder than they were a day ago with the last event. Thus the potential for icing on roadways (especially untreated roadways) will be much greater than with the previous event. The best potential for icing will occur between 3 am and 9 am which is when precipitation will be most intense while temperatures are below freezing. Ice accumulations are expected to range from 0.10 - 0.20". Precipitation is expected to continue through much of the day Sunday, however temperatures are expected to rise above freezing at which time freezing rain will change to plain old rain. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing between 7 am and 10 am. Obviously the sooner temperatures rise above freezing the less ice amounts we will see. Nevertheless, the main thing to take away from this event is that at least up 0.10" of freezing rain/ice is expected tomorrow morning and it only takes a very small amount of ice to create travel problems. Temperatures are expected to rise to near 40 by the afternoon on Sunday.

Again, for quickly updating information stay informed by "liking" us, Warren County Wx on Facebook or by "following" us @WarrenCountyWx on Twitter. Also the NWS in Louisville has complied a great outline for the event which can be found on their website:

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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