Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Showers in the Forecast

That's right folks, showers headed our way. In this post I will break down the timing of this system, temperatures we could see this week, and how much rain we can expect in our area. Clear tonight in Bowling Green allowing those temperatures to dip down into the lower 20s this morning, but once that sun comes out look for a rise! We could reach a high of 55 tomorrow.

 But our main weather maker is on Thursday to Friday. By Thursday morning the United States will be under a meridional flow, with a cutoff low beginning to be reabsorbed into the jet to our north. This is the system which will give us this rain (shown below).

300mb NAM Valid for Thursday morning. Notice the active weather pattern across the US. Strong jet on the eastern side of the cutoff denotes a northeasterly movement to be reabsorbed.
So moving down to the 500mb level, we generally look at vorticity values. This indicates energy needed to fuel a storm. Most of the energy with this storm is to our north and moving northeast. This will affect our precipation values. Both models, the GFS and the NAM, are in agreement on the placement on this. The NAM does provide more moisture with this storm though. Both models do show winds from the south, but again the NAM has higher relative humidity values from the Gulf.

700mb NAM model valid for Thursday morning. Notice winds from the south with high relative humidity values in Bowling Green. 

Now the temperatures coming in on Thursday and Friday look interesting. Surging into the mid to possibly upper 60s. Dew points look to be decent for January, as well as decent wind shear. Instability indices look to be low though. So could we see thunder storms? Yes! Will they be severe? Right now it doesn't look so for our area but it could be possible. Expect rain to begin to move into Bowling Green Wednesday night and then scattered Friday morning as the system begins to push out.

Late Wednesday night composite reflectivity. Rain beginning to enter our area. 

So let's discuss amounts! I believe just over an inch is pretty safe to say at this moment. As we get closer, I will fine tune those amounts. Look for another system moving into our area Saturday as a cold front stalls. Expect temperatures to crash Sunday and next week. Could this be the return of old man winter for next week??? Teleconnections look to be on board along with an active pattern. Time will tell.

So to recap, expect sunny skies tomorrow. Rain will move in late Wednesday night and push out Friday morning. Expect a few claps of thunder with this system. Temperatures will surge as the week continues.

Wednesday: High 60     Low 49 

Thursday:    High 65     Low 50

Friday:         High 66     Low 52

Saturday:       High 66     Low 50

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

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