Monday, August 27, 2012

A Quiet Week Ending With "Isaac" Impacts???

Tuesday Evening Update on Hurricane Isaac (10 p.m.)

Isaac officially became a hurricane today and has since made its first landfall in southeast Louisiana as an 80 mph hurricane.  The storm however is once again over open waters as it moves northwest at 8 mph according to the 11 pm EST advisory.  Concerning the updated thoughts on our concerns here in south-central Kentucky, forecast models have come into an agreement that the storm will not take the eastern path that was indicated as a possibility yesterday and thus impacts in Warren Co should not be major.  The current expected track would take the remnant storm well to our west in western Arkansas and Missouri with a turn northeast through Illinois and Indiana.
If this path verifies, though impacts will be minimal, increased chances for rain can be expected into the weekend.  The current Hydrometeological Prediction Center's 1-5 day rainfall predicts Isaac's heaviest rainfall along and just to the east of the expected path with about half inch to 1 inch predicted in our area.

It’s has been warm and dry the past couple of days here in Warren Co as students move back in on the hill.  Today does bring a chance of a few showers however as a cold front slowly drifts into the area.  Rain chances are fairly low and showers should be scattered in nature.
Simulated Reflectivity from the 00z WRF model indicate
scattered showers near Warren Co at about 6 pm this afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler by Tuesday and Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies.  The big weather question of the week is that of where Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Isaac will make landfall and move inland? Furthermore, will its inland movement impact us here in Warren Co?  The problem is that this question is very difficult to answer due to the complexity of the situation and the way in which the forecast models are handling it.  To this point the forecast models have been very unreliable from run-to-run and have been consistently shifting the forecast track for Isaac further west.  As the situation stands now (stay tuned to the blog for further updates) some of the models bring the tropical system into central-southern Louisiana and move it inland into Oklahoma/Arkansas before a turn to the east and northeast.  If this situation were to unfold we here in Warren Co could possibly see the slight impacts by the weekend though the worst of the system would past to our west and north.  Other models bring the hurricane onshore near Biloxi, MS and eventually bring it inland into western Tennessee and just west of us.  Should this occur our impacts would be much greater from Isaac this weekend, with heavy rains possible.
The official forecast track/intensity map from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. CST Monday.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center ( takes the system in the middle of the road so to speak of the models with Bowling Green on the outer edge of the “cone of uncertainty.”  The major differences surrounding the models concern interactions with a ridge in the plains and trough in the east and the steering impacts they will have on the tropical system.  The bottom line is that the remnants of Isaac have the POTENTIAL to impact us here in Warren Co this weekend as thus changes in the forecast track need to be monitored closely.  While you’re keeping an eye on Isaac enjoy an overall quite start to the week.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Partly cloudy skies in the morning should become mostly cloudy by the afternoon and overnight with a 30% chance of a few showers.  High near 92.  Winds will switch from the southwest (morning) to the northwest (evening) and will be from 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds in the morning will make for a partly to mostly sunny day with a morning low around 68 and a high near 88.  Winds will be light from the north.

Wednesday: Sunny skies with a cool morning low near 59 and a high near 88. North winds a 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny with a low near 61 and a high near 87.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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