Thursday, August 30, 2012

Isaac Brings a Wet Weekend!

Midday Saturday Update (1:48 p.m.)

Thus far only a few showers have impacted the Warren Co area due to the remnants of Isaac however rain with embedded storms appears likely this afternoon.  Taking a look at current radar imagery there is a line of rain and storms near Clarksville, TN that are headed northeast and should impact Warren Co between 3 and 4 pm.
Fort Campbell radar imagery around 1:30 p.m. Saturday.
There are also areas of new development ahead of the line which is already bringing rain to some areas.  Thus scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous by this afternoon.  Meanwhile with more sunshine this morning than expected and with the rain holding off until the afternoon temperatures have been warmer than initially expected and temperatures should top out near 90 before becoming rain cooled.  Rain chances will also be high tonight especially into tomorrow as the remnant center of Isaac to our north during the day tomorrow.
12z Saturday run of the WRF model indicates rain
from the remnant Isaac impacting the area at 6 a.m. Sunday.
Rain could be heavy at times tonight through tomorrow night with generally 1-2 inches of rain expected through Monday afternoon.
We have experienced a very sunny week here in southern Kentucky this week along with warm high temperatures in the low 90s.  Today however you may have noticed clouds were beginning to move into the area, especially this afternoon.  These clouds are in fact associated with the outer edges of the remnant of Isaac and these clouds will soon be bringing rain to the area.  The center of what is left of Isaac will be passing well off to our west near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border before it turns northeast moving through central Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
This track will be close enough however to bring good rain chances to Warren Co and all of Kentucky.  In fact quite a bit of rain may fall by next Monday because the circulation will be moving so slowly to our west and north.  The Hydromeorological Prediction Center's latest rainfall forecast for the next 5 days indicates that we may receive 2-5 inches of rain with higher amounts near the Ohio River.
Rainfall could start as early as mid-day Friday and continue through Labor Day with the best chances for rainfall on Saturday and Sunday.  Keep in mind that there is still some uncertainty as to whether the the storm will track into northern Illinois/Indiana or further south near the Ohio River and northern Kentucky, depending on which track the storm takes will make a major difference on the rainfall totals in this area.  With that said, the northern track seems more unlikely due to a front stalling to our north, thus with the storm closer to us rain could be heavy Saturday night into Sunday.  Also note that because we will be on the southeast side of the system banding of the rain may occur and if it does rainfall could be heavy and lead to flash flooding.  One other thing to note is that an isolated tornado, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out due to our position respective to the center of the storm.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies in the morning becoming cloudy by the afternoon with 60% chance of rain. Morning low near 72 and high around 87.

Saturday: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of rain. Low around 74 and a high around 83.

Sunday: Rain is likely; 70%.  Rainfall could be heavy at times.  Morning low near 74 with a high around 82.

Check back to this blog for continued updates throughout the weekend as Isaac nears and the rain falls.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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