Friday, August 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Issac: Impacts for Warren County and Forecast 8/24-8/26

The long term forecast will show tropical storm Issac making land fall as hurricane by Monday (8/27). Below is the latest hurricane track image from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall first in the Florida panhandle and eventually make it's way north west to impace Alabama and Mississippi.

Taking a look at this path, should Warren County be worried about the potential impacts of Hurricane Issac? Taking a look at the GFS long range forecast model, we see Isaac missing Kentucky and instead taking a path across Georgia and interacting with a trough extending through the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, the storm is absorbed into the main flow of the jet stream and moves east across Georgia.The timing is thought to be From Wednesday to Thursday (8/29-8/30). If the GFS solution is correct, we will only be experiencing a few stray showers and thunderstorms in the wake of Isaac. 

The model that has generally brought more confidence overall in the tracking of Isaac, however, is the ECMWF or European Model. This model is usually the most accurate all around model. If this model holds true, we would see more of an impact from Isaac beginning Friday (8/31). In this case, we are still looking at an extremely weakened system. It is likely that we will only see heavy rains and a few rumbles of thunder out of this system.

Weekend Forecast:
The weekend forecast looks to be fairly persistent with what we have experienced all this week. We are still under the influence of a weak trough in the Ohio Valley. This trough will be moving out with ridging building back in as we go into Friday afternoon and Saturday. This will cause temperatures to increase steadily. We will also be getting some of our moisture back which will create more humid conditions for the weekend. Sunday looks to bring a surface front along with another upper level trough axis into the area. At this time, it is expected to bring meager amounts of precipitation. As a result, we will see temperatures cool off a bit into Sunday and Monday.

Friday: High: 90 , Low: 65
Saturday: High: 90, Low: 68
Sunday: High 90:, Low: 70

 FORECASTER: Emily Yates

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