Thursday, July 19, 2012

Severe Weather then... a Better Weekend

Friday Morning Update: We received a lot of beneficial rain yesterday evening as most of Warren Co picked up at least an inch of rain while some picked up closer to 2 inches.  2.28 inches of rain was recorded at the Bowling Green-Warren County Airport.  Just wanted to mention that the Storm Prediction Center no longer has Warren Co outlined within the Slight Risk area for severe storms for today; the threat will be further south into AL, MS, & TN.  Furthermore most of the rain and storms have already ended for the day and only a 30% chance of rain exists for the rest of the day.
Warren County has received a fair share of scattered thunderstorms during the first half of the week.  The warm weather also returned with heat index values reaching 106 on both Tuesday and Wednesday.  The ridge that built in over the past couple of days that brought the heat is sliding to the west, however, which is allowing a weather disturbance known as a shortwave to move through the Ohio Valley today into tomorrow.

RAP 500 mb relative vorticity for 21Z (4 p.m.) Thursday
 It is this shortwave (and associated surface low and front) along with warm temperatures and Gulf moisture that will lead to storms today through tomorrow, some of which could be severe.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County under a slight risk of severe weather for the threats of large hail and high winds for both today and tomorrow.

Slight risk for severe storms exists for much of the
Ohio Valley, including Warren County for today.
A slight risk for severe weather has also been
outlined to include Warren County by the SPC for tomorrow.
Storms are most likely to develop/move in from the north after 3 p.m. today and linger into the overnight hours.  More scattered severe storms a possible tomorrow morning.  For more details on the SPC's outlooks and the severe weather threat check out Temperatures will still be warm before clouds and rain move into today with the mercury rising into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values once again at or above 105.  Due to the heat, a heat advisory has been issued for Warren County until 9 p.m. this evening.  Rain and thunderstorms chances exist for Friday morning though temperatures should be cooler due in part to rain and clouds.  The weather should begin to clear out by Friday afternoon and the cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies should make for a decent weekend.

Thursday: Slight Risk of Severe Storms.  Heat Advisory in effect.  60% chance of thunderstorms some of which could be severe with large hail and high winds with the highest threat coming for this afternoon and into the overnight hours.  Otherwise it will partly cloudy and hot with highs near 98 and heat indices topping out near 105.
Friday: Slight Risk of Severe Storms.  60% of thunderstorms mainly in the morning with mostly cloudy skies and a morning low near 76. Clearing skies after noon should allow temperatures to warm to a high around 91.
Saturday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies should prevail with a low around 72 and a high near 90.  20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny skies once again.  Low near 72 and a high around 94. 20% chance of a thunderstorm.
Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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