Monday, July 16, 2012

A Returning Ridge and Warmer Temperatures

Last week measured rainfall was recorded 6 out of 7 days of the week at the Warren County mesonet site with high temperatures generally in the 80s. This was due to a stationary front draped across the area along with enhanced rainfall due to an upper-level low pressure system. These features are being replaced with a ridge of high pressure which means a return to warmer temperatures and lesser rain chances.
NAM 250 mb height and wind forecast for 21z Tuesday (4 p.m.)
Due to the ridge moving back into our area, no organized rainfall is expected in the first half of the week and temperatures will once again be heating up.  While temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 90s, as apposed to the 100 degree heat of late June/early July, more moisture in the air will create high heat indices.  Tuesday into Wednesday the heat index is expected to range from 100-105 degrees, thus once again take heat precautions this week as the temperatures rise.  Rain chances do increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the ridge slides westward allowing the flow around the high pressure to bring a better chance of thunderstorms into south-central KY.
Daily Forecasts:

Monday: A 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm, otherwise partly cloudy with a high near 94.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with a low around 73 and a high near 94.  Heat indices may range from 100-105.  20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a low near 74 and a high around 95.  Heat indices may range from 100-105.  30% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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