Monday, July 23, 2012

Heat & High Pressure

Wednesday Morning Update...
(10:50 a.m.)

It looks as though today will be a couple of degrees warmer than first expected and with the numbers leaning toward more dangerous heat an update seemed warranted.  Indications seem as though Bowling Green will likely reach a high near 100 today and with very muggy air, heat indices will likely reach the 105-110 range today.  With that said Warren Co. is under a Heat Advisory until 8 p.m.  Be cautious in the heat today.

Full blog update tomorrow morning on rain chances and even the risk for severe storms.

Tuesday Afternoon Update...
(5:46 p.m.)
Severe weather is possible this afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County within the southern extent of the slight risk area for thunderstorms in the latest Day 1 outlook.  Furthermore the SPC has also issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 p.m.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Warren County until 10 p.m.
An outflow boundary that extended from storms that moved through eastern Kentucky earlier today now extends along a line from just north of Owensboro to Elizabethtown to Somerset.  A few storms have fired along this line, some of which have been severe warned despite no severe reports as of this time.  While these storms will very slowly move southeast and will avoid Warren Co., further development is possible as the outflow boundary pushes south toward Warren Co and into an unstable atmosphere.  The main threat with these storms will be high winds though large hail is also possible.  The greatest risk of these storms will be between 7 and 10 pm.

SPC mesoanalysis (21Z) shows that the outflow boundary is moving into an unstable air mass.
Mixed-Layer CAPE values are in near 3500 J/kg surrounding Warren County.
At this time the risk of severe weather (or even storms at all) will be isolated unless storms can become more organized along the boundary.  Nevertheless the chance of severe storms with the primary risk of high winds has been outlined by the SPC with the latest outlook and the newly issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch and thus these storms require monitoring.
Since the storms moved through bringing heavy rain and high winds last Thursday, the weather has been fairly quite in Warren County.  Temperatures cooled somewhat with the high not even reaching the 90 degree mark on Saturday.  Don’t expect that to last however as the hot summer time ridge will once again be in control of our weather pattern this week which will leave south-central Kentucky hot and for the most part dry.

NAM surface forecast temperatures/pressure heights
for 21Z (4 pm) Wednesday. (Source:
Actually the center of ridge, which is currently centered over the Great Plains, will be sliding closer to the commonwealth toward midweek which will bring continued heat.  Generally temperatures in Warren Co. will be in the mid-90s to upper-90s but with moist air, heat indices may once again range from 100-105.  Rain chances during the first part of the week will be slim, but chances increase to a 20%-30% during the middle part of the week.  The best rain chances will come Thursday night into Friday.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with hot temperatures and a high near 96. Heat indices may reach 100-105.  Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with a low around 75 and continued heat with a high around 98.  Heat indices may reach 100-105.  West wind from 8-14 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny with a morning low near 75 and an afternoon high around 98.  Heat indices may reach 100-105. 20% of an isolated thunderstorm. West-southwest winds from 9-15 mph.
Thursday: 30% chance of thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy skies with a morning low around 74 and a high near 97.  Heat indices may reach 100-105.
Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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