Thursday, May 24, 2012

Heat is coming with little rain in sight

Friday: Mostly sunny with a high near 93 and a low around 66.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high near 96 and a low around 68.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high near 98 and a low around 70.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a high near 92 and a low around 70.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain chances early.  High near 87 and a low around 60.

Memorial Day weekend will bring temperatures that are well above normal as a strong 500 mb ridge parks itself over the southeast.  It won't be until late Sunday that the ridge begins to breakdown, quickly helping temperatures to descend back toward normal temeperatures for this part of the late spring season.

The 588 dam line marks the "heat dome" that will help temperatures soar to levels as much as 15 degrees above normal.

Any precipitation will be hard to come by for most of the weekend, but Saturday and Sunday will reach temperatures that could be high enough to spark some convection across the area.  A destabilizing boundary layer, marked by dewpoints nearing the 70 degree mark advecting northward along a strong low-level jet, could be sufficient for a stray storm.  Any convection will be limited and short-lived.

It's not until Tuesday that a significant chance at rain will be present as an approaching front influences our weather.  Modeled 5-day precipitation totals show much of the state as relatively dry.  Whether or not this pans out will depend on how much moisture is available and if the front can strengthen any during its trek southward.

NOAA HPC 5-Day precipitation totals through Tuesday morning.

Early Tuesday, a cold front will be cutting across the Ohio River, helping to set off some showers and cool our temperatures.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

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