Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Storms likely Thursday, providing brief cool down and GREAT weekend!

Wednesday:  Sunny skies, with a high around 88 and a low near 61.
Thursday:  Storms likely, possibly severe.  Highs near 82 and lows around 67.
Friday:  Storms possible early, then gradual clearing throughout the day.  Highs near 75 and lows around 55.
Saturday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs near 75 and lows around 55.
Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Highs near 84 and a low around 64.

Heading into the weekend, Wednesday looks to be the most summer-like day of this forecast with temperatures in the upper 80s and mostly sunny skies.  A brief northwesterly flow behind the cold front passing through the state Tuesday will help high pressure build in and clear skies.  This is, however, short-lived, as an abrupt change in our weather is expected Thursday.  Our well above normal temperatures will change as a potent upper-level trough ejects from the Dakotas late Wednesday and approaches the state during the day Thursday.
A springtime trough will bring a good chance at strong to severe storms Thursday and early Friday.

This trough will steepen lapse rates and help to develop a surface low over the Ozarks and Missouri, first lifting a warm front roughly to the I64 area and then dragging a cold front behind it.  The SPC has issued a slight risk for Thursday, and expected precipitation looks to be high.
A slight risk area that includes most of Kentucky has been issued for Thursday.
South-central KY looks to get some much needed rainfall Thursday.  Storms could last into Friday as well.

Models are varying with their solutiions that revolve around the speed of the trough approaching the state.  If the faster solutions prove to be more accurate, Friday will be mostly dry.  However, more of the models show that the trough and its attendant surface low will stick around for most of the day Friday, helping to output more rain, up to another half of an inch.

After the passage of Thursday/Friday's cold front, temperatures will be well below average for late May and early June.  For those of you who like springtime temperatures, you'll really enjoy this weekend as temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the region and dry weather will make for a GREAT weekend!

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

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