Monday, May 14, 2012

Dry and warming conditions for the next couple of days

Monday:  Mostly cloudy with clearing as the day progresses.  High near 75 with a low around 56.
Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with a high near 80 and a low around 53.
Wednesday:  Fog possible early.  Mostly to partly sunny with a high around 83 and a low around 56.

A boring, summertime forecast is in store for us during the next couple of days as the trough that brought the Mother's Day rain slides eastward.  Sinking air, or subsidence, along the western edge of the trough will gradually clear skies Monday as high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Clear skies and gradual warming under the sunny conditions will lead to continual warming to temperatures that by Wednesday will be around 5 to 6 degrees above normal.

HPC Surface Map for Wednesday, May 16 7:00 AM

The only real points of interest for this forecast are whether or not we'll get any fog to form late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, and how much cloud cover we'll experience from a weak front that will slide across the Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.  Shown above is a surface map for early morning Wednesday, indicating a weak low pressure center over Illinois that will slowly track across the state with a cold front following it.  Strong ridging, however, as indicated by 500 mb height contours, will begin to also take effect at the same time.  Expect some scattered cloud cover Wednesday afternoon, but little to nothing in regards to rain.

NAM Forecasted 500 mb Height and Vorticity Fields for Wednesday, May 16.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

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