Sunday, April 1, 2012

Above average temperatures continue and rain chances on the increase

An upper level ridge will continue to keep skies partly clear through the early part of the week as an amplified neutrally tilted trough continues to slide its way eastward across the United States.  As this trough moves eastward, a surface low pressure will quickly deepen and help temperatures continue to be above normal and closer to summer time average temperatures.  

Projected location of surface low pressure system
Strong warm air advections around this low will bring temperatures to the upper 80’s Monday while lows Monday morning will remain around the low 60’s.  Tuesday looks to be similar to Monday with high’s in the upper 80’s and lows in the mid 60’s.  Given that no convective inhibition is forecasted to cover the area, air mass thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the duration of the afternoon Monday and Tuesday.  Tuesday afternoon introduces more difficulty to the forecast as a closed low pressure system makes its way across Kentucky.  All forecast models suggest a band of showers developing moving from southwest to northeast across the region beginning Tuesday night and these showers look to persist into the day early  Wednesday .  

ECMFW forecast for April 3rd at 10:00pm.  Shows 90% Relative Humidity over our region.
Courtesy Weather Underground 

NAM projected Composite Reflectivity.  The band of showers is also suggested in this model run
Temperatures Wednesday will be slightly lower under mostly cloudy skies in the upper 70’s, while lows will continue to be in the lower 60’s to upper 50’s.  As Thursday approaches, models differ on precipitation chances as the upper level remains over the area.  Updates to forecast will come Thursday. 

Lead Forecaster:  Nathaniel Shearer

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