Friday, March 30, 2012

Severe weather threat...UPDATE

With the 2:00 PM CDT update to the convective outlook, Warren County is still included along the boundary of the slight risk area of the SPC.  However, as we continue on throughout the day, our previous forecast looks to verify, meaning that we'll be lucky to get any rain.  Current radar imagery from WFO KVWX in southwestern Indiana is seen below, showing storms that have fired ahead of the eastward advancing cold front.

The low pressure center associated with the front is straddling the Indiana and Ohio border and will continue eastward along the zonal 500 mb flow, slowly pushing the cold front across the Ohio River as we continue into tomorrow morning.  Mesoanalysis from the SPC shows a dry pocket of air ahead of the approaching storms.  In addition to the lack of moisture, sundown is approaching, meaning that with the lack of shear in the area, the stabilizing boundary layer overnight will settle us into a mostly dry evening.  Steep lapse rates, however, may produce a random shower before tomorrow morning.

Ultimately, today will be another day like Wednesday.  Our moisture that was in place was advected to the northeast, displacing the severe weather threat away from the county.  A big cool down will be coming over the next several days, bringing us back to spring-like weather.  Check back again on Monday for our next forecast.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

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