Friday, March 30, 2012

Slight risk area for Friday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County under a slight risk for severe weather today, as outlined in the graphic below.

Model guidance suggests that a fairly zonal upper level wind pattern will advect low pressure over eastern Illinois eastward into Indiana and Ohio, dragging a cold-front across the area by early Saturday morning.  Given that virtually no lifting mechanism looks to affect our area during the day today and moisture content will be meager, we're expecting scattered coverage across the region, much like we experienced Wednesday.  Southwesterly flow should strengthen during the day to around 20-30 knots, upping dewpoints to the high 50's level.  However, strong CIN should hold off any significant convection until the late evening hours.  By sundown, we're looking for the continual 500 mb height falls, an eroded cap and about 1000 J/kg CAPE to create the chance for scattered thunderstorms.  Updates will be provided later as they become necessary, but for now, Stormtoppers will remain at ALERT status and will not be activating.

Between 7:00 and 8:00 PM, our shot at showers will be at its peak.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

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