We're back on last week's trend of severe weather threatening the area on Thursday. We've been keeping an eye on the models and the possibility of severe weather Thursday evening is becoming more promising. We are currently just outside of the Enhanced Risk area according to the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook.
The biggest threats for our area right now are large hail, damaging wind, and a few possible tornadoes. The timing is looking to be mid-afternoon through the evening. Stay updated with the NWS Louisville Office as well as a NWS Weather Radio and your local news stations.
|Day 2 Convective Outlook (SPC)|
What does all this technical jargon mean? According to the Storm Prediction Center:
"The level of categorical risk in the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks is derived from probability forecasts of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail on Day 1, and a combined severe weather risk on Days 2 and 3.
- TSTM (light green) - General or non-severe thunderstorms - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENH (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) - High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events)."
The temperatures overnight are going to stay pretty warm at around 60. This is going to help the setup for tomorrow evening's storms. There will be some rain overnight tonight and throughout most of the day tomorrow. This normally hinders severe weather ability by dissipating some of the atmosphere's energy, so we'll have to keep an eye on this factor. The high tomorrow should rise to about 75 which will help destabilize the atmosphere, but cloud cover could prevent too much destabilization. Once again, we'll have to wait and see.
Once the storms move through, our temperatures will start dropping some until we meet average overnight lows of around 40 and highs of close to 60. However, there will be lots of sunshine to go around!
A Glance at the Rest of the Week
Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 62. South wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. High near 75. South wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 58.
Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 41.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 68.
Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Forecaster: Cait French