Thursday, January 28, 2016

Warm Weekend Ahead, Possible Severe Weather Threat Mid Next Week?

Good afternoon!

A mix of sun and high clouds will dominate the area today in association with a weak shortwave trough passing through the region, which will keep a lot of these high clouds around through the early evening, with no precipitation expected for the day today. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees in the Bowling Green area this afternoon until another weak trailing cold front associated with a low pressure system around the Great Lakes region will impact the area later on this evening.

With that being said, the weak cold front itself is going to drop temperatures during the overnight hours in the upper 20's. The system overall is moisture starved, thus, any precipitation that does fall will be extremely light in nature. Some light snow showers/flurries will be possible, particularly in areas north of Bowling Green late tonight. However, latest short-term models, including the HRRR, don't seem to show much in the way of any precipitation around south-central Kentucky during the overnight hours and keeps most of the flurry activity to northern portions of the state.

04Z HRRR: Note the lackluster of flurries in the region, with most confined to the northern portions of the state. Source: COD

Tomorrow looks to clear out, with slightly cooler temps than today. Temperatures will rebound once more into the 60's on Saturday with plenty of sunshine to go around. Our next rain threat doesn't come until Sunday night through Monday with high temperatures remaining in the 60's across the region.

Ok, now on to the possible severe weather threat next week. Though it is still way too early for details, the latest model guidance suggests a chance of thunderstorms associated with a strong low pressure system moving across the central plains during the day Tuesday. However, the overall question is if these storms will be severe in nature. The GFS over the past few days has consistently shown a line of thunderstorms along a strong cold front during the day on Tuesday. CAPE values remain relatively low, however, the GFS continues to show plenty of directional shear in association with a strong 50+ kt 850mb LLJ, an indication of a possible squall line with straight-line winds being the main threat. With high temperatures expected to be in the upper 60's and even into the 70's by Tuesday, the atmosphere will have plenty of time to get primed between now and then. Once the front exits the region, expect the arctic air to make yet another unfortunate appearance. Just something to watch in the coming days. Things will continue to change between now and then, so keep up with the WKU stormToppers team for the latest updates. 

The 12z GFS late Tuesday afternoon showing a strong 50kt LLJ over much of south-central Kentucky, and indication strong straight line winds could be a possibility. Source: COD

The SPC already is watching this system closely and has the area under a risk for severe weather next week. Source: SPC

Full Forecast:

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 7 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60. South wind 8 to 11 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Have a great day!
Forecaster: Alex Antoshak

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