Rainy Start to the Week

Current Conditions:
Good evening everyone.  After a fall-like weekend with highs only in the 50s, warmer weather is starting to filter back into our area.  The official low this morning at the Bowling Green Airport was 32°F.  This is the first freezing temperature we have observed for Fall 2014.  Currently, we are on the southeast side of a surface low that is located over Illinois.  A warm front passed through the area earlier causing winds to be out of the southwest instead of the north.  Winds will remain out of the southwest tonight keeping the temperature from dropping considerably, like we saw last night.  Expect a low tonight of 53°F under partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy ahead of our next system.

Forecast Discussion:
The surface low that is positioned over Illinois will continue to move off to the east in the morning and as it does so, showers are possible tomorrow morning.  Current timing puts rain in the area by 7am tomorrow.  Again, the rain will be light in nature.  Once this system moves off to the east, a shortwave trough will move through in the afternoon.  As this trough moves through, convection is possible.  Due to this, storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.  Currently the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (Figure 1) out for our area due to the storm threat.

Figure 1:  SPC Day 2 Categorical Outlook for Monday, October 6, 2014.

The main for our area will be high winds and hail.  Depending on how much instability develops tomorrow, will determine if any severe weather occurs.  If clouds persist throughout the day tomorrow, the severe weather threat will diminish.  Be sure to stick with the Storm Topper Network tomorrow for the latest information on the severe weather threat as it progresses.  Monday night into Tuesday, the shortwave trough will continue to move off to the northeast.  A weak disturbance will move through on Tuesday bringing with it the chance for more scattered showers.  Current timing has showers moving in by 6am and clearing out by 4pm.  By Wednesday, things will begin to calm down once again.

Days at a Glance:

Monday:  Low of 53°F and a high of 71°F under mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of SW at 15-20 mph.  Scattered showers in the morning with an increased storm chance in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday:  Low of 56°F and a high of 72°F under mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph.  Scattered showers will be possible in the morning hours.  Chance of precipitation is 50%.  

Wednesday:  Expect a low of 59°F and a high of 69°F under mostly clear skies.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 mph becoming northeast at 5-10 mph.  No precipitation is expected.   

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley