Sunday, April 27, 2014

Severe Storms in the Forecast

Forecast at a Glance
Sunday Night - Cloudy with a low of 65 and showers and thunderstorms throughout the night. None will be severe.

Monday - High of 76 with a low around 60. Showers and thunderstorms in the morning, with a possibility of becoming severe during the late afternoon into early evening. Main threats include gusty winds, large hail, and a possibility of an isolated tornado. Rain fall amounts could exceed 2 - 3 inches causing flooding concerns as well.

Tuesday - High of 76 with a low around 50. Chance of thunderstorms at 60%.

Wednesday - High of 69 with a low around 45. A lingering shower is not out of the question.

Good stormy evening everyone and welcome to Sunday. Current conditions in Bowling Green are cloudy with temperatures hovering around the 70 degree mark. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move into the city this evening and into the morning hours. Our attention then shifts to a severe weather set up we have tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. So lets dive into what we know!

Basic Forecasting!
Severe weather ingredients we look for include lifting mechanisms (fronts, jet streaks, shortwaves, positive vorticity advection), moisture, instability (CAPE, theta-e, ), and finally, shear (helicity, low level jet). As forecasters, we use all of these ingredients to determine the likely hood of a severe weather occurrence.

So as we move into tomorrow we will look at the 300 mb heights and wind map valid for tomorrow at 4:00 PM. A negatively tilted trough is moving off to the east, with a strong jet streak entering our area providing us with lift and divergence aloft.

NAM 300 mb heights and winds, 18Z model run, valid for tomorrow at 4:00 PM

The upper level low is slugging rounds of vorticity at us tomorrow, providing us with more upward vertical motion. Vorticity amounts look stronger as we look towards Tuesday afternoon, while a jet max will be overhead. Moisture will be surging in from the gulf tomorrow, and Tuesday afternoon, providing us with higher dew points and more instability.

NAM 700 mb relative humidity, and winds valid for tomorrow at 4:00 PM.

We will continue to be in the warm sector of the system tomorrow providing us with winds from the south, temperatures in the mid 70s, and dew points approaching 65 degrees. The low level jet looks to be rockin at around 45 knots, which will help organize these storms for tomorrow afternoon. Now the forecast becomes more tricky as we look at the instability parameters. There is much disagreements between the NAM model and the GFS model on the amount of instability, and also the amount of CIN which would inhibit any instability in play. This could determine if we get any severe weather at all tomorrow afternoon. 

Threats and Timing
Main threats for tomorrow look to be gusty winds, a chance for large hail, with a small chance for  isolated tornadoes. Showers will be around throughout the day tomorrow with a chance of becoming severe in the late afternoon into early evening. Later tomorrow night will be plagued by heavy rain, with amounts exceeding 2 - 3 + inches.

We will continue to monitor the situation, and if anything changes we will keep you posted!

Forecaster: Brian Urbancic

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