Friday, March 14, 2014

Roller Coaster Ride Continues... Rainy Weekend with Snow Chances

After spending a couple of spectacular spring like days in the 60s and 70s, temperatures came crashing down Wednesday, making a return to the 30s and 40s. By Wednesday evening, scattered sleet and snow showers moved through the area. Well, our roller coaster ride will continue as we move toward the weekend... this time for the better (aka warmer temperatures). But.... we come crashing back down again Sunday night as we watch the possibility for more scattered sleet and snow showers.

High pressure has again settled into the area, bringing with it the sunny skies we saw yesterday and are seeing today. An area of low pressure is centered to our north over the Great Lake states and between the high pressure and the low pressure strong southerly winds will be present (which is where we are). Thus today will be very windy with winds from the southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts 30 mph+ possible.

These strong south-southwesterly winds along with the mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to return to the mid 60s. Moisture will also be on the increase though, and as a weak cold front approaches from the north as well as some upper-level energy from the west, a few light showers are possible by tonight.

The real rainmaker will move in over the weekend however. A fairly potent upper-level disturbance will move its way from the 4-corners region toward the mid-south. This should spread clouds across the area Saturday afternoon with the chance for scattered showers increasing into Saturday night. After midnight Saturday night rain will be likely and should continue right into Sunday evening. Rain could be heavy at times and it seems that most of us should see anywhere from 0.5" - 1.5" inches of rainfall by Sunday night. Some locations could see up to 2".

Total precipitation through Monday morning; forecast via the Weather Prediction Center.
Still a lot of uncertainly with the exact track of this low pressure. It should come almost directly over south-central Kentucky. What this means is that we'll see much warmer temperatures just to our south and much colder temperatures just to our north. In fact, it appears there could be some decent snowfall just north of the Ohio River by Sunday evening.

Once this low pressure pushes just to our east Sunday evening into the overnight, much colder air will come spilling in and there is the possibility that some wrap around moisture could move into the area, thus bringing scattered areas of light sleet and snow. Again, a lot of uncertainty (ie... this will change), but minor accumulations cannot be ruled out at this time. We'll keep and eye on it, but regardless I doubt it ends up being very significant.

By Monday, there could be some lingering snow showers/flurries with a chilly day expected (roller coaster continues). But looking longer term, conditions may actually balance out a little with temperatures in the 50s and 60s for highs and lows in the 30s and 40s, in other words, around average. Meanwhile, there currently are not any indications of any major weather makers through midweek next week... so hopefully getting back to some more spring-like days.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Mostly sunny to start, becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon with a 20% chance of a shower. Windy with southwest winds from 15-25 mph with gusts 30 mph +. Warm with a high around 67.

Tonight: 20% chance of a few showers. Otherwise, cloudy early becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low around 43. Southwest to west winds from 3-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny to start the day with increasing clouds into the afternoon/evening hours. High near 65 with southwest becoming southeast winds at 3-8 mph.

Saturday Night: 80% chance of rain, especially after midnight. Low near 47. East winds at 3-10 mph.

Sunday: 90% chance of rain, could be heavy at times. High near 55. Winds from the east at 8-15 mph. Total rainfall (Sat N-Sun N) likely between 0.5" - 1.5" inches.

Sunday Night: 60% chance of rain early transitioning to scattered sleet and snow showers. Minor accumulations possible. Low near 28.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few lingering snow showers/flurries possible early; clouds decreasing during the afternoon. Chilly with a high only in the mid 40s.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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