Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Light Snow Chances Through the Weekend

It certainly feels warmer than the last few days as the temperature in Bowling Green has surpassed the freezing mark and looks to top out in the middle 40s by later this afternoon. To our south, portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas are getting pounded by significant ice and snow which is rare for that part of the country. The area of low pressure causing trouble to our southeast has caused our skies to be mostly cloudy across the region this afternoon. There is a possibility for a few rain or snow showers to impact areas right along the KY/TN border later today as the low pressure moves farther east. As of right now it looks like little to no accumulation of snow to any areas that see any precipitation across the southern part of the state.
Ice and snow accumulation in Augusta, GA. (Courtesy: WJBF-6 Augusta)
This area of low pressure will turn up the east coast, and cloud cover will move out of the area overnight as temperatures dip down to the lower 20ss. On Thursday, an area of weak high pressure will keep skies clear with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. Lows Thursday night look to be around 30 degrees.
Friday's weather could be messy as there are some snow chances in the forecast. A weak disturbance will dive into Kentucky early on Friday. There is a bit of model disagreement as to how far south this disturbance will track. A track farther to the south could mean more precipitation for our area, but a track to the north would mean less precipitation. There is also the question of precipitation type. While the precipitation looks to begin as snow during the morning Friday, southwesterly winds will help bring temperatures up to around 40 degrees during the afternoon which will transition the precipitation to rain. As the system dives southeast late Friday, we could see some of the precipitation end as snow before midnight Friday. As of right now, it looks like the bulk of precipitation looks to miss our area, with temps getting too warm on Friday for any accumulations. There is a chance for a dusting to half inch of snow as the system departs Friday night. We will monitor this system for any changes over the new two days.
12Z GFS  Surface Precipitation Type for 3PM Friday afternoon shows how close that rain/snow line will be to Bowling Green.
On Saturday, we will be influenced by another weak surface high pressure which will keep skies clear with high temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Saturday night, another clipper system looks to dive in from the northwest, but confidence is pretty high that the precipitation will stay north of southern Kentucky. A few light snow showers are possible Saturday night as the clipper skirts to the north with our low temperature around 30 degrees. If Friday's clipper could lay down a light accumulation of snow across central Kentucky, that snow cover could influence a more southerly track of Saturday night's clipper so this is another system we will be watching for any changes.
An upper level ridge will nose its way eastward on Sunday, bringing clear skies and high temperatures near...50 degrees. 50 degrees will be certainly be welcomed after our recent cold spell and their are some indications that warmer temps could last into the middle of next week. That is all for this afternoon, have a great day!

Days at a Glance:

Wednesday: High - 43 Low - 22 Winds - Light and Variable
Precipitation: 20% chance of isolated rain and snow showers, especially across the KY/TN border. Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Clear overnight.

Thursday: High - 44 Low - 29 Winds - SW at 3-7 mph.
Precipitation: 0% Skies - Clear.

Friday: High - 41 Low - 24 Winds - SW becoming W at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation: 50% chance of rain and snow showers during the day becoming snow showers Friday night. Accumulations: A dusting to half an inch. Skies - Cloudy.

Saturday: High - 37 Low - 30 Winds- S at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation: 20% chance of isolated snow showers Saturday night. Skies- Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

Sunday: High - 47 Low - 34 Winds - S at 3-5 mph.
Precipitation: 0% Skies - Partly Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

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