Colder Temperatures to Return by Midweek

Discussion:

What a difference a week makes! Last Sunday, we were dealing with mixed precipitation, high winds, and extremely cold temperatures. Today is a different story as the longwave trough that brought us  rain this weekend continues to move eastward. Behind this trough warmer temperatures, mostly clear skies, and southerly winds will be on tap for Sunday. Currently, at the Bowling Green airport the temperature is 46 degrees with winds at 9 mph  from the southwest. Southerly winds will allow for warm air advection to raise our temperature into the lower 50s this afternoon underneath an upper level ridge. Tonight, southerly winds will increase a bit and help to move clouds into the area before the next trough swings through the region Monday. As a result of the cloud cover tonight, low temperatures this evening will only dip into the lower 40s.



12Z GFS showing a large upper level trough over the area Wednesday afternoon. (Valid 18Z Wednesday) Courtesy: NOAA

Beginning on Monday, a series of disturbances will impact Warren County daily through midweek making for a tricky forecast. Monday morning temperatures will be quick to rise into the lower 50s ahead of the next upper level trough. By midday the upper level trough will have generated an area of rain over southern Kentucky. This rain will not be very heavy but will last until Monday evening with precipitation amounts remaining light. Cold air may catch up with the ending precipitation as the temperature drops into the lower 30s Monday night but any snow showers will be very light in nature and no snow accumulations are expected.Winter tries to make its return to our area starting on Tuesday. Tuesday will start off under mostly clear skies and southwesterly winds. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees before winds turn northwesterly and the next disturbance moves in from the west. This shortwave will give us an outside chance of a rain shower Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday night, precipitation coverage will increase  as temperatures fall, and snow showers will be possible. These snow showers look relatively light at this time, but there is a chance for very light snow accumulations Tuesday night. Any changes in Tuesday's forecast regarding snowfall amounts will be addressed in a forecast update if necessary. The Tennessee Valley will be right under the upper level trough on Wednesday and it will be a chilly day, as temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. There is a chance for a few flurries Wednesday and Wednesday night, but these will be isolated in nature.

Forecast:

Sunday: High - 53 Low - 42 Winds - S at 5-10 mph increasing to 10-15 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Mostly Clear becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight.

Monday: High  - 52 Low - 33 Winds - S at 5-10 mph  turning W at 3-7 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 70% chance of rain after noon. Slight chance of a snow shower before precipitation ends Monday evening. Rainfall amounts  ranging from .1"-.25". No snow accumulation expected. Skies - Cloudy Skies becoming Partly Cloudy overnight.

Tuesday: High - 48 Low - 27 Winds - SW at 5-12 mph turning NW at 5-10 mph overnight.
Precipitation - 30% chance of rain showers during the day, 40% chance of snow showers overnight. Rainfall amounts <.1". A dusting up to 0.5" of snow accumulation is possible Tuesday night.
Skies - Partly Cloudy skies Tuesday morning, then Cloudy skies.

Wednesday: High - 31 Low - 24 Winds - NW at 5-12 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated flurry Wednesday morning. Skies - Cloudy skies Wednesday morning becoming Clear overnight.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor