Monday, August 26, 2013

Summer is Still Here! A Warm Week Ahead with Rain Chances Wednesday.

Tuesday: High, 90 . A warm day with only a few clouds in the afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Low, 72 . Cooling down the low 70's with clearing skies and light wind around 5-7 mph.

Wednesday: High, 92. Warming up slightly from Tuesday. Winds shifting from the west at 5-10 mph. Clouds increasing into the afternoon. 10% chance of precipitation into the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Low, 73. A mostly cloudy night with lows in the mid to low 70's. Winds around 5-10 mph.

An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will remain in place across the central and eastern US suppressing much in the way of thunderstorm/rain development in the afternoons as has been the pattern most of the summer. More "summer" like temperatures with highs into the 90's for your work week. Dew points will remain in the 60's and 70's making for humid conditions as moisture is pulled in around the surface high.
Figure: Right: NAM 250 mb heights and winds valid for 12 z Wednesday showing upper level ridging still in place over Western Kentucky. Left:  NAM 12 z MSLP/6 HR Precipitation/ 1000-500 mb thickness valid for Wednesday showing surface front and corresponding expected six hour precipitation totals with more favorable development in eastern Kentucky. 

The surface high will begin to move out Tuesday night. The ridging aloft looks to remain in place through the period. A weak cold frontal boundary will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ridging aloft and a "lid" in the the form of a consistently warm temperature profile as you move up from the surface will work against any thunderstorm development. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon in areas where this "lid" breaks down from surface heating. The best areas for development appear to be to the east of Warren County.

Forecaster: Emily Thornton
Next Forecast Update: Wednesday, August 28.

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