Monday, August 19, 2013

Afternoon Rain Chances as Temperatures Return to Near Average

Daily Forecast:

This Afternoon: Partly cloudy with a high around 83. East winds at 2-8 mph.

Tonight: Partly to mostly clear with a low near 65. Some patchy fog is possible during the morning hours. Winds will be light to calm.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm; high around 85. Winds will from the southeast at 2-8 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly clear with a low near 67. Calm to light southerly winds

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High near 87. Light winds from 2-8 mph out of the south-southwest.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a low around 67. Light to calm southwesterly winds.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with a high around 89. 40% chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a low near 68. 30% chance of a scattered thunderstorm early.

Discussion: Despite how the weather has felt lately it is indeed still August. Temperatures have been 5 -15 degrees below average for the past several days during what should be one of the hottest months of the year. Temperatures have gradually warmed though as we moved through the weekend from the 70s last Friday to the low 80s today (Monday). As for precipitation? Rainfall was heavy with a round of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in which the Bowling Green/Warren County Regional Airport picked up over an 1.50 inches of rainfall. For the most part things have dried out since then despite our fair share of clouds in the area.

Looking into the week ahead, no major weather systems are expected to impact south-central Kentucky. An area of weak surface high pressure will control our weather for the most part though an area of disturbed weather over the southeastern US will slowly creep north and east. An area of disturbed weather in the upper-levels will also settle in across the Ohio Valley. While the best rain chances will be to our southeast from Alabama to the Carolinas rain chances will gradually increase from 20% Tuesday to 40% by Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Any thunderstorms will be scattered in nature but could bring some lighting and heavy downpours at times. Temperatures should continue to gradually warm and will return to near normal with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 by mid-week.

The NAM model forecast for Wednesday afternoon indicates the high pressure system over the southeast with a chance for scattered thunderstorms over south-central Kentucky.
Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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