Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Stormy Weekend will Bring Cooler Temperatures!


It's been a hot and humid work week in Warren County. The strong upper level ridge positioned over the Ohio Valley has brought hot temperatures and uncomfortable dew points with it. This afternoon, Bowling Green reached 94 degrees, and dew point temperatures in the 70s allowed heat indices to top out around 100 degrees today. Winds have been light and variable today, not offering much in the way of relief from the heat. Isolated showers and thunderstorms popped up across Kentucky this afternoon driven by daytime heating and these should continue into the evening before dissipating. These showers and storms are very isolated in nature and the only threat with them will be some cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain. Overnight, we will stay pretty warm as temperatures will only dip into the lower to middle 70s. With dew points still around 70 degrees, not much relief from the heat can be expected over night and patchy fog may develop by daybreak in some low lying areas. Much of the same story tomorrow, as temperatures will climb back in the lower to middle 90s. This will allow for some more isolated showers and storms to pop up again. The ridge over our area will have weakened just a little bit, allowing for a bit more thunderstorm coverage, but these should die off as we lose daytime heating tomorrow night.
METAR plot for the  region valid at 2200 UTC Wed 17 Jul 2013
Current surface observations at 5 P.M. this evening show hot and humid weather across most of the eastern United States.

Friday will be our last day dealing with the heat and humidity and temperatures will soar once more into the lower 90s. An upper level trough will be moving into the area on Friday afternoon and convection will be expected to pop up once more, but forcing from the incoming surface cold front to our north may allow for these storms to continue into the night. As the front sags south, Saturday will be interesting as precipitation will spread south throughout the day. This cold front will allow for fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms late Saturday. Even with the instability that will be in place, lack of wind shear should limit these storms from becoming organized and becoming severe. Regardless, a thunderstorm producing brief high winds cannot be ruled out late Saturday into Saturday night, and heavy rain and lightning will still be a threat with the storms. How far south this front goes is still in question, as there are some indications that the front will slow down after passing over southern Kentucky, allowing for precipitation to linger into Sunday. Around a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected with this frontal passage. With the trough in place, Sunday will feel much cooler as temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 80s, with much more comfortable dew points.

Days at a Glance:

Wednesday Night: Low - 74 Winds - NE around 5 mph becoming calm overnight.
Precipitation - 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Any isolated storms in the area will diminish by late evening. Skies - Mostly Clear.

Thursday: High - 93 Low - 74 Winds - Light and Variable.
Precipitation - 20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Any isolated storms in the area will diminish by late evening. Skies - Mostly Clear.

Friday: High - 94 Low - 73 Winds - SW 4 to 7 mph.
Precipitation - 30% chance of thunderstorms. Some of these storms may continue into Friday night. Skies - Mostly Clear

Saturday: High - 89 Low - 70 Winds - SW 5 to 10 mph.
Precipitation - 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening.  Skies - Mostly Cloudy. Total Precipitation - 0.25" to 0.5" An isolated severe storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

Sunday: High - 87 Low - 69 Winds - NW around 5 mph.
Precipitation - 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Skies - Partly Cloudy

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

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