Friday, June 28, 2013

Unseasonably Cool Temperatures... Rain Chances

After thunderstorms and rain rolled through south-central Kentucky on Wednesday evening, Thursday was a much calmer day with only an isolated thunderstorm here or there. Bowling Green and Warren County dodged the worst of the storms Wednesday evening and to my knowledge no thunderstorm damage was reported in Warren County despite being under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for some time. The worst of the storms went just to our north and east where straight line winds knocked down trees and power lines; an EF-2 tornado was even confirmed in NE Larue County. Little, if any, rain fell in the southern half of the county, while some places in the northern to northeast parts picked up 0.25" to nearly 1.0". As mentioned the system moved out creating a mostly sunny and warm day for Thursday. An unusual pattern for June/July is now setting up that will bring back some rain chances in the coming days and also some unseasonably cool air.

The upper-level wind pattern, or the jet stream, is currently becoming an very amplified pattern with a large ridge in the western US and a large trough in the east. Generally speaking, warm temperatures are associated with a ridge while cool temperatures are associated with a trough. This generalization will certainly say alot for the nation's weather this weekend. Beneath the ridge in the west very hot temperatures will occur; areas near/in Death Valley, CA will be in the upper 120s for the next several days! Meanwhile we are forecast to be 5-10 degrees BELOW average for this time of year starting Saturday and continuing into most next week! Highs will be in the low 80s with lows in the low 60s. The reverse of this was occurring this time last year as a ridge was bringing a string of record breaking heat during a time of drought. Records at the Bowling Green Airport included 106 on June 28th and 110 on June 29th.

The mid-level pattern (black arrows) brings systems up over the Rockies and down into the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys. This will create hot and sunny weather over the west and cool temperatures with chances for scattered showers and storms across our area.
A trough in the upper-levels also can bring in a number of disturbances creating the chance for rain. This will indeed be the case starting with today. Currently a few sprinkles and clouds are moving through while the main complex of thunderstorms passes well to our southwest near Memphis. In general most of the thunderstorm activity will remain to our south with the chance of a few showers this morning. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon with chances at about 20% as the front slides south through Kentucky. Things will clear up temporarily overnight and for much of the day on Saturday until clouds increase late in the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible after 4 pm. Small hail cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger storms due to the cold air aloft... overall this should not be a major concern however. Scattered showers and storms will again be possible Sunday afternoon as well. Rainfall on either day should range between less than 0.1" and 0.25"; these storms will not be the heavy rain producers that storms were earlier this week as some slightly drier air will work in today behind the front. Some locations directly beneath the strongest storms could pick up more however these locations will not be the norm. Scattered rain chances and cool temperatures will continue into the early part of next week. Enjoy the cool temperatures for this time of year.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: 30% chance of a few showers this morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny by early afternoon. High near 88. An isolated thunderstorm/shower cannot be ruled out this afternoon. West-Northwest wind at 6-12 mph.

Tonight: Clear to mostly clear skies with a low near 64. Light west to west-northwest winds at 3-8 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with a high near 83. 30% chance of thunderstorms by the afternoon. West to west-northwest winds at 6-12 mph.

Saturday Night: 40% chance of a few thunderstorms before midnight, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies with a low around 62.

Sunday: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms. Unseasonably cool with a high near 80. West-northwest winds at 3-8 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with 40% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms before midnight. Low in the low 60s.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms with a high near 80.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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