Monday, February 11, 2013

Start of the Week Forecast and Chances of Snow!

Forecast Overview:
Tuesday: High 50, Low 32. Clear skies to begin the day with sunshine. Clouds increasing into afternoon with rain showers possible late Tuesday night. Light winds around 5 mph shifting to the north by Tuesday night.

Wednesday: High 45, Low 35. Rain showers in morning hours with a change wintry mix after noon. Snow/rain showers ending late Wednesday night. Winds from the north/northwest around 5-10 mph.

Thursday: High 54, Low 32. Drying out and return of sunshine. Clouds increasing as next system moves in from west. Winds shifting to the south.

Friday: High 48, Low 30. Next chance for snow. Mostly cloudy. Winds shifting to more westerly flow.

Forecast Discussion:

Tuesday will bring a chance again for some light snow in central Kentucky. An area of low pressure will move just to the south of central Kentucky placing us on the backside of the system. The event will start out with primarily rain. The moisture will wrap around the low and freeze causing a mixed batch of precipitation for us into Wednesday.

Nam forecast MSLP and precipitation for 18z (Noon) Wednesday

The latest output from the SPC shows less than 50% chance of accumulating snow > 1 inch for our area. Temperatures could drop just under freezing by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, temperatures will warm well above freezing into the mid-40's by Wednesday afternoon with lows in the mid-30's. This will prevent any accumulation, however slight, from sticking around too long. A few roads may develop some slick spots into Wednesday afternoon/night.

The GFS and NAM models disagree with the GFS painting a swath of 1-2 inches accumulation across western Kentucky by lunchtime Wednesday. The NAM omits these totals leading to some disagreement among the models on accumulation. The GFS tends to be the wrong case still showing surface temperatures above freezing throughout most of the forecast period which wouldn't support accumulating snow. Thursday will bring another front through and a cool down in temperatures. Friday will bring another upper level disturbance/surface front moving through with more chances of snow showers. This will become more clear for what to expect later in the week. 

Forecaster: Emily Yates
Next Update: 2/13/12

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