Monday, January 14, 2013

Cool Down to Continue Returning to More Seasonable Temperatures

Forecast Update: A Hazardous Weather Outlook for Warren County concerning possible mixed wintery precipitation event later into the evening. Visit NWS Hazardous Outlook for more information. Only small accumulations are expected but roads could become slick and motorists should be cautious of changing road conditions tonight!

 A Flood Warning remains in effect for Drakes Creek near Alvaton. Currently, the creek is at 16.6 feet with it's flood stage being 22 feet. The river is forecast to make it above this stage by Monday morning. The warning includes Butler and Warren Counties. For more information, visit NWS.

NAM current surface temperatures with cold front clearly depicted by strong temperature gradient extending from Maine back through Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. 

Temperatures across Western Kentucky have taken a dive after the passage of a strong cold frontal boundary this evening. This boundary has also taken all the moisture with it leaving behind very dry cool air pooling in behind. Temperatures in Warren County have dropped around 25 degrees over the past 24 hours. Cold frontal boundary is expected to become stationary again over the Carolinas. Several wave impulses will rotate through at the 700 mb level and help kick off some post frontal showers over western Kentucky Sunday night into Monday drying out into Tuesday night. With temperatures very cold and freezing line nearby, we can expect some light flurries and mixed precipitation at times.

NAM and GFS models are in good agreement with placement of current trough axis over the western United States. The polar and subtropical jets are currently super-imposed upon each other helping to funnel the moisture for our weekend rain event into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models both show this trough staying semi-stationary and becoming more elongated and digging slightly to form a more organized upper level low. As this low develops it becomes slightly cut off and then becomes reabsorbed into the main flow during the day Wednesday. As the low develops, the subtropical jet again becomes independent of the polar jet as the low becomes absorbed into the polar jet. A zonal flow extends across the continental U.S. Thursday into Friday. This system looks to stay off to our west until the weekend when another cold frontal boundary will develop and push through the region. The rest of the week from Wednesday into Friday look to remain dry with more seasonal type temperatures.

Forecast Overview: 

Monday: High, 35 . Low, 24. Slight chance of morning showers clearing out with showers returning in the evening.

Tuesday: High, 40 . Low, 25. Slight chance of afternoon and evening showers with some mixed precipitation possible.

Wednesday: High, 45. Low, 30. Drying out with clearer conditions.

Forecaster: Emily Yates
Next Update: 1/16/13

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