Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Thursday to Bring Rain, Colder Temps, High Winds & Snow Flurries??

The last couple of days have been very nice here in south-central Kentucky, sunny skies have dominated and highs reached the mid 50's yesterday and the low to mid 60's today.  However....  changes are on the way!! Currently a major storm system is developing over the southern plains which could bring severe weather to our west overnight in parts of Arkansas and Missouri.  Meanwhile a blizzard with heavy snows will occur on the north side of the system from Nebraska to Wisconsin.  This system will begin to impact us here in southern KY as early as this evening in the form of increased cloudiness and stronger winds.  Current satellite imagery shows increased cloudiness moving into the area from the west.  Rain will soon follow as rain and storms should break out in the southern plains by 6 pm.  The storm system overall will quickly progress from the panhandle of Oklahoma to near Chicago, IL by tomorrow afternoon. As it does, several different impacts will be felt here in south-central Kentucky including rainfall, high winds, much cooler temperatures and finally, snow flurries???

Models are consistent in showing the precipitation moving in between 3 am and 5 am.  Rainfall will then continue steadily thereafter into Thursday morning.  There will be some very limited instability in south-central KY but nonetheless a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out during the morning hours.  Rain will fall steadily throughout most of the morning as will the temperatures.  Rainfall totals will likely be anywhere between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

The Hydormeteorological Prediction Center's 1-2 Day Precipitation Forecast.  Note Around a Half an Inch in South-Central Kentucky.
Temperatures will start out Thursday in the mid to upper 50's. However, they will be dropping and will do so all day Thursday.  By noon, temperatures will be near 50 but will begin falling more rapidly as the cold front should push through around that time.  Winds will switch out of the west ushering in the cold air.  By 6 pm temperatures will have fallen to around 40 and the strong winds will make it feel even colder outside.

Speaking of the winds they will be very strong.  There is a WIND ADVISORY for Warren County and all of south-central KY from 3 am tonight until 9 am Friday.  Tonight the winds will be increasing with winds out of the south between 10 and 20 mph.  They will continue to increase and will be anywhere from 20 to 30 mph tomorrow especially around and just after noon behind the front as the winds switch out of the west and southwest.  Gusts will be greater than 35 mph and may be as high as 50 mph between noon and 4 pm Thursday.
NAM model forecast for 3 pm Thursday.  Note that the for the most part precipitation has pushed to the east.  The black lines indicate equal lines of pressure and the closer these lines are to each other the higher the winds.  Also the 850 zero degree line (blue line intersecting KY) indicates that cooler temperatures will be moving in and with some lingering precipitation flurries are possible.
Snow Flurries??:
As if the day would not be eventful enough weather wise, flurries or even light snow will be possible as moisture wraps around the storm system.  The best chance for flurries/snow showers will be between 6 and 9 pm and chances will increase as you move north and east of Warren Co.

Finally, skies will slowly clear into the early morning hours of Friday but cloudy skies most of the night will be enough to keep temperatures from getting too cold.  Nonetheless, Friday morning lows will be in the upper 20's.  Skies will remain clear Friday but temperatures will remain cool and winds will once again be strong.  Winds Friday will be from the northwest from 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.  Highs will struggle to get above 40.  Clear skies will remain through Saturday morning and winds will finally become much lighter.  With lighter winds that may go calm and clear skies, Saturday morning temperatures will dip into the low 20's.  Next chance of rain won't be until Monday.

Daily Forecasts:
Tonight: Increasing clouds with rain by morning with some thunder possible.  Temperatures may drop into the low 50's before holding steady or even warming to around 56.  Winds will increase out of the south from 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Rain with some thunder possible before noon.  Rainfall totals will be between 0.25-0.50 inches.  Strong winds switching from the south early to the west by the evening; winds will be from 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 mph+.  Temperatures will fall from around 56 in the early morning hours to around 40 by 6 pm.  Flurries or a light snow shower is possible in the evening.

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies with a few flurries possible early.  Still windy with winds from the west at 15 to 25 mph.  Clearing late with a low near 27.

Friday: Sunny skies and still windy with northwest winds from 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.  Cool with a high near 40.

Friday Night: Clear skies with wind slowing to near calm by morning.  Cold with a low near 22.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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