Cloudy Cool Christmas... Rain or Snow Christmas Night?

It's been a nice first weekend of winter here in south-central Kentucky.  As a matter of fact yesterday's high of 55 in Bowling Green put us about 10 degrees above average for this time of year.  Changes in our weather pattern look to bring the warmer than average trend to and end by the end of the week however.

Below Average Temperatures are Forecast by the Climate Prediction Center for this Weekend into Next Week for much of the Nation including Kentucky.

Cold Canadian air will take aim at the Ohio Valley behind a storm system moving though this Wednesday.  Temperatures will initially begin cooling off this afternoon as a cold front will pass through.  Behind the front cooler air will settle in from the north which will make for a cool Christmas Day. It seems as though clouds will stick around for most of today with some clearing overnight behind the front.  The clouds will quickly create overcast skies again on Christmas Day with the next storm system which will be approaching from the southwest.  There will be no snow, so if you've been dreaming of a white Christmas, just keep dreaming, next Christmas is only 366 days away!  Back of the next storm system, the last blog post mentioned the possibilities of our first real winter storm of the season the day after Christmas.  I also said that the models didn't have a good handle on the track of the storm system and that the track of the low would mean all rain, all snow, or a mix here in south-central Kentucky.  Well the models have come into some better agreement, enough to say that it seems very unlikely that we will receive snow here.  Models have come into better agreement that most of the snow will fall just to the north of the Ohio River from SE Missouri to Indiana.

Probability of 2 inches of Snow or more from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows that any significant snowfall will remain just north of the Ohio River.

As we near the time of the system and because the models have come to at least some degree of certainty it seems highly unlikely that the models would shift so far south as to give south-central KY/Bowing Green a good chance at significant snow.  However, some snow may wrap around the back side of the low pressure system and thus there is a chance for light snow Wednesday afternoon.  So if you are in want of snow you'll need to travel north and west to find some snow. For those traveling north to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit to cheer on the WKU football team be aware that heavy snow is likely in Detroit Wednesday morning. So if no snow here, what kind of weather will come our way?  Well you guessed it, it looks like a rainy Wednesday is ahead.  Rain should actually start sometime Christmas evening, around or just after 6 pm.  Rain will continue overnight and some rainfall could in fact be fairly heavy.  It appears as though much of the area may receive at least an inch of rainfall by the time the rain is ending midday Wednesday; much of the mid-south could receive closer to an inch and a half.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's Precipitation Forecast for the next 3 days. Notice the Forecast of 1.00 to 1.75 inches of Rain in South-Central Kentucky.

It does look like that at least some light snow may fall Wednesday afternoon/evening but little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time.  As for the end of the week, skies should clear briefly Thursday before another storm system impacts the area Friday night/Saturday.  This system will too bare watching as precipitation may be of the wintery type.  Temperatures will be cool with highs in the 30s and 40s.

Daily Forecast:

Monday: Mostly cloudy with 40% chance of light rain/drizzle especially before 10 am.  High near 52.  Winds between 3-8 mph switching from the SW to NW.

Monday Night: Clouds clearing to become partly cloudy with a low near 34.  Light northwest to northeast winds.

Christmas Day: Increasing clouds in the morning to make for a cloudy day.  Cool with a daytime high around 45.  40% chance of rain late.  Northeast winds from 6-12 mph.

Christmas Night: Rain some of which could be heavy at times.  Temperatures warming overnight to near 50.  Winds from 10-20 mph switching from the east to the southeast and then to the southwest.  Rainfall between 0.75-1.00 inches.

Wednesday: 60% chance of rain before 10 am with a 40% chance of a showers changing to snow showers by the afternoon. Temperatures will fall throughout the day with temps near 50 at 6 am but only in the upper-30s by 6 pm.  West to west-northwest wind from 10-20 mph.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny with morning low near 28 and high of only 38.

Merry Christmas All!!

Forecaster: Ryan Difani