Thursday, August 9, 2012

A Stormy Thursday ahead....Cooler air set to move in.

     Current conditions across the region are shaping up for what will be a stormy Thursday for the Bluegrass. The current set up features a very evident outflow boundary situated over south-central parts of Illinois and moving southeastward. Look for storms to begin firing up ahead of the front just north of the state (Illinois and Indiana) by late morning early afternoon. 

The current surface analysis map valid for 12z from the HPC showing the stationary boundary extending from Northern KY through parts of Western KY.

     The front will continue to track southeastward and in return will help initiate storm activity over the area.  Cape values continue to look impressive as both the NAM and GFS match up very well. Strong values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg cover a good portion of the state with juicy dew points in the upper 60's, low 70's.  This also matches up nicely with the SPC's forecast for severe weather.  The SPC continues to shows a slight risk for severe storms over much of Kentucky while extending from parts of the New England region through the Commonwealth and into the deep south.   

The latest SPC/NOAA categorical outlook for severe weather. The
highlighted yellow area covers a good portion of the Eastern U.S. with
a slight risk for severe storms over the region. 

     The low will travel just north of the state and push eastward before turning up into the New England region by Friday morning. The set up will drape a cold front across the region will unseasonable cooler air behind it. Much drier air with highs expected in the upper 70's, low 80's across the state should make for a comfortable change to wrap up the week. As far as rainfall is concerned, the HPC shows a decent shot with heavier amounts to our north. 

HPC map valid for 12z Thursday. Shows heavier precipitation just to
our north with local rainfall amounts around 0.5 - 0.75 inches of rain. 
HPC maps valid for 12z Friday. The precip. map somewhat outlines
the front with the Low well off to our Northeast by Friday morning.
     Expect rounds of showers and storms to begin into the afternoon and evening hours with a brief quiet period in between.  As the front tracks through the state, we will see another round of storms develop just ahead of the cold front. In return, a loud rumble of thunder and heavy rain could awake many across the state as the late round of showers and storms impact the area.  The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and cloud to ground lightning.  By early Friday morning, any lingering showers and storms should diminish and push eastward. Partly cloudy skies and cooler air will overtake the region as things look to dry up just in time for the weekend. Highs Friday will be cooler, but refreshing with temperatures struggling to break the 80 degree mark! 


Quick Outlook:

Friday night: Cool, and becoming mostly clear. Low 59 degrees with light and variable winds from the   NW.

Saturday: Expect sunny conditions, with a high of 80 degrees. Light winds from the NW around 5 mph. 

Saturday night: Another cool, clear night with lows dipping down to a chilly 58 degrees. 

Sunday: Expect another nice day, with a high around 84 degrees under mostly sunny skies. 

Forecaster: Chris Johnson

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