Rainy Start to the Work Week

Discussion:

Good evening, expect a calm night tonight with temperatures falling near 60 degrees. Skies will become mostly cloudy overnight ahead of our next weather system. Mostly cloudy skies will give way to scattered rain showers tomorrow afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the state from the west. As this cold front moves east, expect precipitation coverage to increase throughout tomorrow evening with a few rumbles of thunder possible as well. High temperatures will be dependent on the extent of afternoon cloud cover but highs are expected to reach the lower 70s before precipitation enters the area. Some of the heaviest rain will occur overnight tomorrow as the best forcing will be along the front with isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Precipitation is expected to taper off near daybreak on Tuesday as the front passes east of southern Kentucky. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1″ are expected on Monday and Monday night with localized higher amounts possible.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday morning as the front mentioned earlier pushes off to the east. Behind the cold front, we won’t see temperatures drop much as afternoon temperatures will still make a run at 70° although highs will once again depend on the extent of cloud cover. Models are in general disagreement as to Tuesday afternoon, with the GFS keeping precipitation in the area, and the NAM keeping the area dry. For now, expect high pressure to settle over the Ohio Valley during the afternoon with skies becoming partly cloudy. Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight on Tuesday with low temperatures dropping into the lower 50s. A stray shower or thunderstorm will also be possible overnight.

Unfortunately, rain chances will enter the forecast again on Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance ripples through a trough in the subtropical jet stream to our west. Expect dry conditions during the morning hours on Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the afternoon hours with the best coverage just to our east. Rainfall will continue overnight with rainfall amounts around 0.25". If you are looking for a break from our wet pattern, rain chances are unfortunately expected to stick around through the end of the work week.

Day 1-3 QPF valid from 7pm CST today until 7pm CST Wednesday (Courtesy: WPC)

Forecast:

Tonight: Low - 61˚; Winds - South at 5-10 mph; Skies - Mostly Cloudy

Monday: High - 73° Low - 52°; Winds - South at 5-10 mph becoming North at 5-10 mph overnight
Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Cloudy overnight
Precipitation - Scattered showers expected during the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1" with locally higher amounts possible.

Tuesday: High - 69° Low - 51°; Winds - Northeast at 5-10 mph; Skies - Mostly Cloudy
Precipitation - Isolated thunderstorms expected throughout the day with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Rainfall totals around 0.1" expected.

Wednesday: High - 71° Low - 58°; Winds - East at 5-10 mph; Skies - Cloudy
Precipitation - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals around 0.5" expected.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor