Monday, October 27, 2014

Changes Coming for Bowling Green Weather


Good afternoon, we saw another warm day across southern Kentucky today with the Bowling Green Airport reaching a high temperature of 83º. Currently an area of surface low pressure associated with an upper level trough is located in Central Wisconsin. A cold front is draped to the southwest and this front will push east overnight. Ahead of this cold front, we are seeing winds out of the south in Kentucky as a low-level jet is present ahead of the cold front. These southerly winds will keep temperatures mild overnight with lows only falling into the lower 60s under partly cloudy skies.

The cold front is expected to be situated just northwest of the Ohio River by daybreak tomorrow. Winds will be breezy with southerly winds around 10-15mph. A line of showers and storms is expected to form along the cold front and push into Kentucky by mid-morning on Tuesday. These storms look to move into Warren County between noon and 4pm tomorrow and a few of these storms could be strong to severe although the greatest threat for severe weather looks to lie just to the east of I-65. Depending on cloud cover tomorrow morning, marginal instability looks to be in place over southern Kentucky by midday tomorrow with some decent wind shear present along the cold front. This means that we could see a few storms produce damaging winds and hail tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s tomorrow before the precipitation moves in. Behind the initial line of storms we will see some shower and thunderstorm activity through the afternoon before rain comes to an end tomorrow evening. At this time it looks like precipitation amounts will be around 0.5". The SPC has placed our area on the edge of a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, with a slight risk to our north and east.
Day 2 Convective Outlook valid on Tuesday 10/28 (Courtesy: SPC)

Winds will shift to the west overnight on Tuesday behind the cold front and skies will become partly cloudy after midnight with low temperatures falling into the upper 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday resulting in calm weather and partly cloudy skies. Conditions will be colder behind the front and highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s with lows falling into the upper 30s overnight. While calm weather should continue on Thursday, a reinforcing shot of colder air will rotate through the upper-level trough and result in high temperatures only reaching the 50s.

Tonight: Low - 61º Winds - S at 5-10mph
Chance of Precipitation - 10%
Skies - Partly Cloudy

Tuesday: High - 73º Low - 48º Winds - S at 10-15mph becoming W at 5-10mph
Chance of Precipitation - 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day. A few storms could be severe. Total Rainfall ~ 0.5"
Skies - Mostly Cloudy becoming Partly Cloudy Overnight.

Wednesday: High - 64º Low - 38º Winds - WNW at 3-7mph.
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies - Partly Cloudy

Thursday: High - 59º Low - 41º Winds - Calm
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Skies- Partly Cloudy becoming Mostly Cloudy Overnight.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

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