Thursday, January 30, 2014

Trending Warmer & Wetter

As expected, temperatures finally managed to rise above the freezing mark this afternoon on a way to a high of 41 here in Bowling Green. This "warmer" trend if you will is expected to continue into the weekend.

We currently sit in the return flow region of a high pressure system. This return flow is allowing the temperatures to moderate as well as for moisture to increase in the region. The continually increasing moisture combined with a disturbance in the atmosphere moving our way this weekend will create the possibility of rain in the area by Saturday and some wintry weather is possibly by Sunday morning. 

Between now and then we'll see areas of cloud-cover but really nothing more than that as areas of precipitation move northwest of the Ohio River. It is Saturday afternoon/evening when the chance for rain begins to increase and overnight Saturday, rain seems likely. Rainfall shouldn't be overly significant but anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50" is possible at this point in time; some locations could see more.

A quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected over south-central Kentucky Saturday night. Some locations could see locally more.
By early Sunday morning, enough cold air could filter into the area to allow some of the rain over to a wintry mix of some sleet, freezing rain (if temperatures drop enough), and snow as precipitation is coming to an end. While the potential is there, at this time the overall threat for anything of concern is low because moisture will be quickly departing as the temperatures cool and in the end temperatures may not cool quite enough anyway.

Sunday should remain cloudy to mostly cloudy as another weak disturbance passes through the area. There remains the chance of a few showers or snow showers on Sunday and by Sunday night, a wintry mix again seems possible. Models remain unsure on how aggressive the system Sunday night will be. As of right now, it appears precipitation should remain light however this is subject to change as does the precipitation type. For now, I wouldn't be overly concerned with this threat but I would recommend monitoring future forecasts due to the high amount of uncertainly. In general, the forecast for Sunday remains at a low confidence level at this time due to this uncertainty and the model discrepancy.

Early next week should bring in more active weather so certainly keep an eye out for future forecasts.

Daily Forecasts:

Thursday Night: Mostly clear with increasing clouds around morning. Low near 27. South winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with a high near 44. South winds at 5-12 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a low near 40. South winds at 8-15 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy with a high around 61. Windy with south-southwest winds at 10-20 mph; gusts possible over 25 mph. 40% chance of rain during the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Rain likely, 80%. Rain will be steady with between 0.25-0.50" expected, some areas could see locally more. A transition to a wintry mix is possible by early Sunday as rain transitions to or mixes with sleet and snow. No significant accumulations are expected at this time. Winds will switch from the south-southwest to the northwest. Low around 35.

Sunday: A 30% chance of wintry mix early; 30% chance of showers during the day with a 40% chance of rain/wintry mix/light snow during the evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise cloudy with a high around around 42. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low 30s. *Note: low confidence for Sunday/Sunday night*

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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