Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Accumulating Snow Chances??... Not Once, but Twice!

It's a beautiful start to 2014 here in south-central Kentucky including Bowling Green. Temperatures warmed nicely into the upper 40s under sunny skies. However change is on the way. The early afternoon satellite imagery shows the area of clear skies extending across nearly all of Kentucky and Tennessee. However an area of clouds can be noted in parts of Missouri and Arkansas which are associated with a disturbance over Kansas and Oklahoma which will move our way overnight.

This disturbance is expected to bring more than just clouds to the area however, rain changing to snow seems likely. Before the mention of snow causes mass panic however, I'll mention that snow accumulations will remain light (up to 1 inch). Rain is expected to begin after midnight tonight and then continue into the morning hours of Thursday before changing over to light snow. The exact timing of the change over to snow remains a little tricky even at this hour, but most data suggest a changeover between 7 am and 9 am just after a cold front passes through bringing in much colder air. Total rain before the changeover should remain less than 0.10" and snowfall accumulations will only be from a dusting up to an inch. The most intense (yet still light) snow will occur just after the change over and thus generally before noon. However, light snow and snow flurries could continue throughout the day before coming to a complete end during the evening hours. If you travel north and even east of Warren County, expected a greater chance of accumulating snow. In fact areas along the Ohio River could see 1-3 inches; the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas.

GFS model for noon on Thursday. Precipitation falling north of the blue line cutting through KY should be falling generally as snow.
Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front will bring in very cold temperatures. In fact, temperatures are expected to drop all day Thursday with temperatures starting out in the upper 30s before the frontal passage. Then temperatures will drop below freezing during the morning hours as precipitation changes to snow. Certainly with temperatures dropping below freezing and light snow falling, roads could become hazardous. By the early afternoon hours, temperatures will drop into the 20s with a temperature of around 25 by 6 pm. Windy conditions will make it feel even colder; wind chills are expected to be in the teens by Thursday afternoon and could dip as low as the single digits overnight Thursday into Friday morning. By Friday morning skies will begin to clear but temperatures will be in the upper teens and highs Friday will likely only be in the mid to upper 20s! Temperatures will moderate to near 40 by Saturday before yet another storm system is expected to move in on Sunday. Again, precipitation type will be a challenge and at this time it appears another rain changing to snow situation is possible. Accumulations could be more significant with Sunday's storm system but quite frankly, it is still too early to call at this point. Thus, we will continue to monitor the forecast and updates will be provided as necessary. Also of note is some very cold air which some data is suggesting for early next week. Some model data (not a forecast) is suggesting lows below zero and highs in the teens... certainly something we will keep our eye on.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with an 80% chance of light rain after midnight. Chilly with a low around 36 with temperatures warming to near 38 by around 5 am. Rainfall less than a 0.10". Light southerly winds.

Thursday: 80% chance of precipitation. Light rain will change to light snow between 7 - 9 am. Light snow and snow flurries will continue off and on throughout the day. Total snow accumulation of up to 1" possible. Cold with temperatures starting near 38 falling below freezing around 9-11 am; ~31 by noon, ~28 by 3 pm, ~25 by 6 pm. Windy with northwest winds between 10 - 20 mph. Wind chills in the teens during the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies with a chance of flurries early will become partly to mostly clear by morning. Cold with a low around 17. Breezy with northerly winds from 10 - 20 mph becoming 8 -14 mph by morning. Wind chills as low as the upper single digits.

Friday: Cold with a high only near 27! Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with increasing clouds late. Low around 19; warmer with a high near 40.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Low near 34 and a high around 38.

For quickly updating weather information as snow moves in follow us on Twitter a like us on Facebook!

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.