Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Warm and Soggy Weekend Expected


Its been a quiet week in weather so far, but that will certainly change by this weekend. Currently, the temperature at the Warren County airport is 46 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST) with a dew point of 17 degrees (4:00 P.M. CST). A combination of clear skies and southwesterly winds this week has kept it feeling pretty warm outside. This trend will only continue as we head into tomorrow. Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow the low temperature to dip right around freezing. Tomorrow will be the best day of the week as southerly winds really get kicking up in the morning allowing the high temperature tomorrow to make a run into the upper 50s and possibly near 60 degrees! Winds will be a little stronger tomorrow than they have all week as southerly winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph as moisture surges up from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will bring some clouds with it, and by late afternoon Thursday we will see a mix of sun and clouds.

5-day Precipitation forecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center for tonight through Monday night. This forecast shows the potential for 4"+ of rainfall to fall throughout the weekend in Southern Kentucky. Courtesy: WPC

Starting Thursday night, precipitation chances enter the forecast until nearly Sunday evening as a very wet weekend is in store for Kentucky. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will allow for a series of disturbances to move over the area from now until Sunday. At the surface, southerly winds will continue pumping moisture into the area which will create a very moist air mass by Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances look very slim Thursday night but increasing cloud cover will limit the temperature from falling too much as the low Thursday night looks to be around 50 degrees. Friday will be a cloudy day, but high temperatures will reach the lower 60s during the afternoon Friday. A weak area of low pressure will move northeast across a stalled front north of us, allowing for showers during the day Friday. These showers should not be too heavy, and precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch for southern Kentucky. Showers will continue to increase Friday night, and by Saturday morning our rain chances look to increase. A stronger area of low pressure in Texas will be moving northeast across the area on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday morning through Sunday morning will remain steady in the lower 60s, with near-record dew points in the lower 60s creating a very moist air mass for this time of year. These exceptional dew points could cause some heavy rain issues during this period as any precipitation that falls will have ample moisture to create very heavy rainfall rates. Rainfall will be steady on Saturday and Saturday night, and weak instability Saturday night could create a few rumbles of thunder as well. As the area of low pressure continues moving to the northeast on Sunday, a cold front will sweep across the area by mid-day lowering temperatures into the 30s and 40s by Sunday night. There could be a few thunderstorms associated with the front moving through Sunday morning, but as of right now no organized severe weather is expected. After all is said and done, Warren county could end up seeing 1-4 inches of total rain by Sunday afternoon, with isolated higher amounts. With this being said, it is important to be prepared for heavy rains this weekend, especially on Saturday through early Sunday.

Days at a Glance:

Tonight: Low - 32 Winds - S 5-7 mph.
Precipitation - 0% Skies - Mostly Clear.

Thursday: High - 59 Low - 49 Winds - S 10 to 15 mph.
Precipitation - 10% chance of an isolated shower after midnight Thursday night.
Skies - Partly Cloudy skies Thursday giving way to Cloudy skies Thursday night.

Friday: High - 63 Low - 57 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 70% chance of showers. Rainfall amounts of less than 0.1" Friday. Rainfall amounts 0.25"-0.5" Friday night. Skies - Cloudy.

Saturday: High - 65 Low - 61 Winds - S 10 to 20 mph.
Precipitation - 90% chance of rain. A few thunderstorms could be possible Saturday night. 1"+ of rainfall is possible. Skies - Cloudy.

Sunday: High - 62 Low- 33. Temperatures will fall throughout the day. Winds - S 10 to 20 mph turning NW 5 to 15 mph by Sunday night.
Precipitation - 70% chance of rain during the day Sunday. A few thunderstorms could be possible Sunday morning. Skies - Cloudy.

Forecaster: Zack Leasor

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