Monday, October 14, 2013

Rain Chances in Store

High temperatures continue to be above average for this time of year across south-central Kentucky. This is partly due to the amount of sunshine we have received over the past few days, but can be more directly attributed to a ridge of high pressure dominating the Great Lakes region. As a result, cooler air from the north is having a difficult time mixing into our area. Sunshine was not as plentiful today thanks to high clouds moving in from the south and west. The clouds are in advance of a gently-sloping warm front aligned over the Dixie Belt. Clouds will increase in coverage as this warm front approaches.

By tomorrow afternoon, the warm front will have lifted to the north, and cloud coverage will remain dense as a cold front moves in from the west. This front will be draped from north to south as a mid-latitude cyclone spins over Minnesota and Iowa. The NAM indicates that Bowling Green will see a frontal passage right around sundown, while the GFS is slower by a few hours. Nevertheless, it appears rain is very likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers will be in a mostly scattered fashion during the day, with perhaps a thunderstorm or two, with a more linear mode of rain arriving with the cold front passage. Unfortunately, this does not fare well for football weather. It appears the Hilltoppers will have to dodge some rain as they face Louisiana-Lafayette at home.
NAM hi-res composite reflectivity valid at 4 PM on Tuesday

Tuesday: High of 76°. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of rain in the early afternoon hours, increasing to 80% by sunset. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph.
Wednesday: Morning low of 61°. Rain tapering off during the day, giving way to partly cloudy skies. High around 65°. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Morning low of 44°. Look for partly sunny skies with a very slight chance of rain (20%). High temperature around 61°. Winds will be from the west at 4-7 mph.

Forecaster: Caleb Chevalier

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