Rain chances moving back in for Tuesday and Wednesday

Forecast:

Overnight: Another cool night as the temperatures will drop down to 52. Mostly clear skies with a light northeast wind.

Tuesday:  A mostly sunny morning will give way to increasing clouds and a 20% chance of rain at 2pm.  The chance of rain showers will increase to 50% by tomorrow evening.  The high will be 78 with 5-8mph winds out of the southeast.  A 50% chance of showers will persist overnight into Wednesday with a low of 60.  Rain totals will be a tenth of an inch with some areas receiving more.

Wednesday: A 50% chance of rain showers will remain in the forecast.  A few early afternoon thunderstorms will be possible with these showers.  Showers and storms will exit our area by evening giving way to partly cloudy skies with a high possibly reaching 80. Light northwest winds will die down overnight with a low of 57.  On Wednesday another tenth of an inch of rain can be expected; however, areas hit by any thunderstorms could receive up to a quarter of an inch.

Thursday:  Clouds will rapidly decrease throughout the morning hours giving way to a calm, sunny day with a high of 80.  Clear and calm conditions will continue overnight with a low around 58.

Discussion:

A rainy Tuesday and Wednesday could be in store for us thanks to an approaching trough from the west.  A current lack of moisture in our atmosphere will hold off any early precipitation chances Tuesday.  This lack of moisture will change with the development of a southern 850mb flow Tuesday that will transfer moist Gulf air into our region.   This moist air advection coupled with lift caused by a region of upper level divergence over our region, will result in the majority of the precipitation we will see Tuesday afternoon.  As this low level flow strengthens over Tuesday as both the GFS & NAM show, our precipitation chances will continue to increase as more moisture/fuel is being added to the atmosphere.  Even after the trough axis passes through Bowling Green early Wednesday, a surface low couple with a vortmax will linger over our region producing precipitation until they move off to our east Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday a ridge will set up over the Midwest providing us with clear conditions. 

Forecaster: Michael Flanigan