Monday, July 8, 2013

Hot and Humid with Relief on Your Wednesday Hump Day

Forecast Highlights:
Monday: High, 90. Low, 72. Partly cloudy with isolated shower chance around 20%. Winds SW at 5-10 knots.

Tuesday:High, 92. Low,  70. Partly cloudy with isolated shower chance around 30%. Winds SW at 5-10 knots becoming more south.

Wednesday: High, 88. Low, 70. Widespread shower/thunderstorm chances return beginning early in the morning becoming more frequent into afternoon. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the largest threat. Winds southwest from 10-15 knots.

The first part of our week leading into Wednesday we will be under the influence of upper air ridging and surface high pressure keeping our skies partly cloudy and sunny with very warm. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out ,as is the story for the past few weeks, as daytime heating leads to strong instability and a moist airmass in place. The lack of a "trigger" will keep the storms isolated in nature and lower chances into the 20-30%. Wednesday, the upper air ridging will break down as a trough swings in from the west. Our rain chances will begin to increase into the day Wednesday as shortwave disturbances begin to ripple through ahead of the main trough.

GFS 700 mb Heights/Winds/RH/Omega Valid Wednesday July 10 at 1 AM CDT

 Flood prone areas could see flash flooding where locally heavy rainfall occurs. Temperatures will cool down slightly from the first part of the week as the trough brings in a cooler air mass to the area. A cold frontal boundary will pass through Friday morning bringing a cool down for Saturday.  An update later in the week on Wednesday will speak more to the storm mode and severe storm chances which right now seem marginal.

Forecaster: Emily Yates Thornton
Next Update:7/10/13

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