Monday, June 24, 2013

Average Temperatures with Thunderstorm Chances... Severe Storms Wednesday Night?

Daily Forecast:

Today: Scattered thunderstorms are likely (60%) with localized areas receiving heavy rainfall. Today's high will be near 88. South to southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Rainfall will generally be between 0.1" and 0.5" but some locations could receive 1" +.

Tonight: Skies will becoming clear to mostly clear as temperatures drop to a low near 69. Light (calm - 5 mph) south to south-southwest winds.

Tuesday: Sunny to mostly sunny skies with a high near 90. South to southwest winds at 6-14 mph. A stray thunderstorm is possible but unlikely.

Tuesday Night: Clear to mostly clear skies with a low around 71. South to southwest winds at 4-8 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny to mostly sunny skies throughout the day with a high near 92. Southwest winds at 6-14 mph. 20% chances of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, increasing into the evening hours to 30% by 6 pm.

Wednesday Night: 50% chance of thunderstorms some of which could be severe with severe winds being the primary threat. Some rainfall could be heavy at times with some areas receiving as much as a 0.5" or more. Southwest winds at 8-15 mph.

Thursday: 40% chance of scattered rain and thunderstorms otherwise partly cloudy with a high in the upper 80s.

Discussion: It was generally an average start to summer temperature wise over this past weekend as sunny skies dominated. Our average high for this time of year is 88 degrees and our highs over the past weekend have been either 88 or 89... can't get much more average than that. Our weather has been controlled by an area of high pressure across the southeastern US which is currently located off the Carolina coast.

Currently however there is an upper-level wave of energy that is moving across the Ohio Valley which has helped to kick off an area of rain and thunderstorms located in the Evansville to Owensboro to Lake Barkley region. Given the upper-level support and the high amounts of moisture in the air (current BG dewpoint is 70) the area of rain and thunderstorms is likely to persist at least to some degree. Current forecast data also suggests that at the very least a few scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely after 10 am today. Given high amounts of moisture heavy downpours are possible. Severe weather associated with today's rain/storms is unlikely given the lack of wind shear needed to organize storms but a few isolated reports of high winds can't be completely ruled out. Some locations could receive 0.5" to 1.0" + of rain if located under the areas of heavy localized rainfall but most locations will only receive 0.1" to 0.5" of rain if any at all. Rainfall will be scattered in nature. Given this area of rain and storms set to move through the region today clouds will likely move in during the mid-morning hours and persist until breaking up and becoming scattered this afternoon and into the evening.

An upper-level wave of energy (green shade) is moving across KY setting of an area of scattered thunderstorms (see radar underlay) over western Kentucky today.
Beyond today rain chances lessen at least initially. The upper-level wave of energy will move east and the main flow in the upper-levels will push north toward the southern-Great Lakes region. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled completely out on Tuesday but chances are less than 20%. It will generally be a sunny to mostly sunny day with temperatures warming back to the upper 80s to near 90. Wednesday will generally be a repeat of Tuesday through most of the day however things may change by that afternoon. The area of high pressure in the upper-levels will completely break down by Wednesday afternoon allowing another wave of upper-level energy to move through. This wave looks to be stronger and be better supported by upper-level winds giving way to increased wind shear. Thus some severe storms appear possible after 6 pm on Wednesday and especially into the evening and overnight hours on Wednesday. The main risk at this time looks to be damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed Warren County and Bowling Green on the edge of a "Slight Risk" of severe storms for Wednesday evening/night. Heavy rain will also likely accompany storms Wednesday night with 0.5" to 1.0" seemingly possible in some areas.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our area under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
The upper-level pattern that will set-up late Wednesday will persist into the late week time frame. This pattern will be somewhat of a northwest flow pattern which is a pattern that often brings down waves of energy which spark off areas of thunderstorms and rain (much like that forecast Wednesday night). Given this pattern scattered rain and thunderstorm chances exist late week with continued seasonal high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows around 70. An update on the possible mid-week severe storms will be posted as necessary.

Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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