Severe Weather Thursday Night

Current Conditions:  
The current temperature as of 8:56 P.M. is 75 and the high today was 87 with a low this morning of 64.  Winds are out of the south at 9 mph.  Currently there is a positively tilted upper level low over Utah with a trough axis stretching from Southwest Utah down into Mexico.  A ridge axis lies over our area which aided in the warm temperatures today.  In the Mid-Levels of the atmosphere, the upper level low is still visible over southeast Utah and western Colorado.  A ridge pattern is still over our area.  At the 700mb associated with the upper level low over Utah is saturated air and over our area, winds are from the south which is why our temperatures are in the mid 70's.  This is also seen at the 850mb level as Warm Air Advection is occurring over our area.  Looking at the surface, there is a 996 surface low over western Texas right now and another surface low over the Southwest corner of Missouri.  A stationary front stretches from southeast Kansas down into Texas with a warm front stretching from Missouri over into West Virginia.  The warm front is to our north indicating that we are in the warm sector.

Forecast:
Moving into tomorrow, the upper level trough will continue to deepen due to a jet streak propagating around the upper level low.  This will help strengthen the trough and it will still remain positively tilted.  A weak diffluent flow will be over our area tomorrow indicating weak synoptic or large scale lift over our area.  Due to the winds being out of the south tomorrow, it will be bringing warm Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area which will aid in the line of storms that will be moving through tomorrow night.  The surface low over Missouri currently will move to the northeast allowing the cold front to come into and provide frontal forcing out ahead of it.  The temperature tomorrow will be 84 setting up the unstable environment as the storms move through.  As it stands right now, the main line will move through Warren County at 10:00 P.M.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk risk for us tomorrow.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook.

The main threat as the line moves through our area will be straight line winds and hail.  Since this system will be moving through the nighttime hours, it is important to have your weather radios ready to go.

Thursday:  High: 84  Low: 56   winds out of the South at 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 85%.

Friday:  High:  59  Low: 53 winds out of the Northwest at 17 mph.  Light precipitation in the early morning and will end by 10:00 A.M. Chance of precipitation is 75%.

Saturday:  High: 64  Low: 36  winds out of the Northwest at 5 mph.  Frost is possible early in the morning.  No precipitation expected.

Sunday:  High: 67  Low: 36  winds out of the South at 5 mph.  No precipitation expected.   

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley