Thursday, March 14, 2013

Warm Friday... The Rain & Storms Possible

Potential Severe Storms Monday... Update (11:22 am Friday)

The Storm Prediction Center has (since the writing of the forecast below) placed all of central Kentucky and Tennessee under an area with the risk of severe storms for Monday afternoon. As more data comes in we will continue to monitor and update you on the severe weather potential. For now at least be aware that Monday has the potential for severe storms. Stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter pages as well as this blog for future updates.

An area of heightened severe storm potential has been outlined over the areas in red for Monday.
The first half of the week has been chilly with an occasional snow or rain shower.  Generally highs have been in the 40s to low 50s. A welcome sight to most however is on the way.... warmer weather! A trough has been in place across the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern United States most of this week and thus temperatures have been cool.  The trough will break down and be replaced by a zonal flow across the nation.  This along with the return flow around a high pressure system near the gulf coast will allow temperatures to warm.  It may be hard to believe since we currently sit in the 30s but we'll climb to a high in the low 70s tomorrow!  Saturday will also be warm with highs in the 60s, however a cold front will move in during the evening bringing temperatures down Saturday night and into Sunday.  This front will stall out over our area and will be a focal point for rain from Saturday evening though Monday.  The rain won't be continuous during this time but rather there will be waves of rainfall.  Rainfall isn't expected to be excessive despite the longevity.  Generally around an inch of rain is expected through Monday night though more may fall in localized areas as a result of a few thunderstorms.

WPC's forecast QPF or precipitation totals through Sunday afternoon. A clear east-to-west line of heavier precipitation can be seen from MO through KY thanks to the stalled front in the area.
By Monday the stalled front in the area will be pushing back to the north as a warm front just ahead of a low pressure system and cold front which will move through Monday afternoon. At this point in time it does look possible that there could be some storms and some severe storms cannot be ruled out. However confidence in the severity is low at this point as we are still several days out.

By Monday around 1 pm CDT the GFS is clearly showing a strong low pressure system over the upper-Midwest. Furthermore warm moist air is being brought in from southerly winds around this system creating an environment in which storms are possible across south-central KY.

Nevertheless at least be aware that storms are possible Monday and that further monitoring is necessary as to whether any of these storms will be severe. Stay tuned to this blog for any updates as well as our Facebook and Twitter pages.  By Tuesday the cold front will have moved through allowing conditions to clear and temperatures to cool down.
Daily Forecasts:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy by morning.  Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s and may warm to near 40 by morning. Light SE to S winds.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the late afternoon.  Warm with a high near 72. Breezy with WSW winds from 8-15 mph.
Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low near 56. 30% chance of a few showers. Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.
Saturday: Some peaks of sun early before becoming mostly cloudy to even overcast during the afternoon. 30% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Winds from 8-15 mph and switching from the WSW to the NNW through the day.
Saturday Night: 70% chance of rain especially after midnight. Low near 45. 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. Northeast winds from 5-10 mph.
Sunday: 60% chance of scattered rainfall with 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. High in the upper 40s to near 50.  Northeast winds from 8-14 mph.
Monday: Low in the upper 40s with a high in the mid 60s. 60% of scattered showers in the morning with thunderstorms possible by the afternoon.
Forecaster: Ryan Difani

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