Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Wintery Weather To Close Out the Week?

Currently, we're feeling the shock of Old Man Winter once again as 18 mph NW winds cut to the bone bringing in the much dreaded colder air. Temperatures will continue to drop tonight into the upper 20's, but will feel colder with the persistent winds in the morning. We will see temperatures into the mid 40's tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies. Tomorrow night represents one of the two bugaboos for this forecast. A weak front will move through the area in the early evening hours, providing some surface lift. With the dry, cold air already in place, there will be hardly any moisture to work with. The issue is that the temperature will be hovering around freezing at the time of and after passage. Models are indicating close to a trace of light to moderate precipitation, but closer inspection will have to be made into tomorrow as far as how much and precipitation type.

GFS 03Z (9 pm) 2/1/13 6 hr accumulated precipitation (in.) Notice our area is projected for a trace (.01 in) of precipitation over a six hour span. Very light precipitation expected.

After the frontal passage, winds will be slackening, skies will be clearing, and temperatures will be plummeting into the mid to upper teens for Friday morning. The high temperature for Friday will struggle to get over 30 as skies remain clear and winds will be low. Friday night lows will dip into the mid 20's, but will hold steady and slightly warmer after midnight. Warming will continue into Saturday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 40's. Right now, models are depicting a frontal disturbance crossing the area in the afternoon, but have not come together for a definite time. Simulated radar returns are suggesting early morning precipitation, but most of the moisture inflow, although small, will be occurring into the afternoon. As of now, I am trending towards an afternoon passage, hence, afternoon precipitation. Most of the heavier precipitation is projected to stay just to our south and southwest. We will have to closely examine this feature closer to Saturday in hopes to nail down the magnitude of moisture inflow, timing, and strength of this front. Precipitation is a real possibility, and considering these factors will help to distinguish type and amounts. Saturday night will have temperatures dipping into the mid 20's while Sunday is looking nice with high's nearing 40 degrees.

Days at a glance:

Thursday: High: 40  Low: 27  Winds: 14-18 mph W switching to 11-14 mph NW around 9 pm  Precip: 70% chance with type to be determined

Friday: High: 28  Low 16  Winds: 8-12 mph NW switching to W near noon  Precip: 0%

Saturday: High: 41  Low: 25  Winds: 13-17 mph SW switching to 8-11 mph WNW into evening  Precip: 80% chance with type to determined

Sunday: High: 41  Low: 26  Winds: 11-14 mph WNW  Precip: 0%

Forecaster: Austin Boys

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