Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Winter Storm Update

Currently an upper level trough is located over Manitoba with a jet max stretching from Minnesota down to northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan.  An upper level ridge axis stretches from Mexico up into Canada.  A vorticity maximum associated with the upper level trough.  Through time, the vorticity increases prolonging the life of the trough.  Moisture values associated with the trough are high with a narrow band of moisture influence coming from the Pacific ocean and wrapping around the ridge, then getting pulled into the trough.  This will help to set the stage for winter weather Thursday night into Friday morning.                                           
700mb Relative Humidity Map
The current temperature in Bowling Green is 38 with winds out of the west at 6 mph with partly cloudy skies. The temperature this evening will get down to 35, therefore be prepared if you have to go outside.  Surface low pressure is located over Canada at the North Dakota border, with the surface high pressure located over the Florida panhandle.  The low will move to the southeast tomorrow bringing cold air and the effects will be felt in the morning.  Tomorrow morning we will start out with a temperature of 31, and the temperature will drop throughout the day.  Winds will be out of the north causing the temperature to feel colder. 

The winter weather set up as it stands at this hour appears to be a freezing rain event, so keep the snow shovels packed away.  The precipitation could start out as sleet/snow then changing over to freezing rain.  The key to this set up is timing and the amount of moisture.  The timing of this event is varying with the models, however, late Thursday night into Friday morning during morning commute is highly likely.  The temperature Friday morning will be 31, which gives way to possible travel problems Friday morning.  We will continue to monitor this situation and will have the latest updates on this Winter Weather situation.

Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley


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