Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Wednesday Slight Risk Update


The slight risk has been moved north of our area. The cold front has been moving much slower than expected. It is currently situated just outside of Kentucky where storms are beginning to fire from the frontal forcing. 

The CAPE values for Kentucky are currently in the 1000-2000 j/kg range. The best 50 kts wind shear continues to remain north of Bowling Green. Dew points remain in the 60's. The advections are currently to the northeast taking all the instability northeastward to the areas currently involved in the watch. 

All this being said, our best chances for storms will be pushed into late afternoon/evening. They will likely be weaker than expected due to the timing and stabilization of the atmosphere as we move into the evening and lose daytime heating. 

Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates

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