Severe weather threat...UPDATE

With the 2:00 PM CDT update to the convective outlook, Warren County is still included along the boundary of the slight risk area of the SPC.  However, as we continue on throughout the day, our previous forecast looks to verify, meaning that we'll be lucky to get any rain.  Current radar imagery from WFO KVWX in southwestern Indiana is seen below, showing storms that have fired ahead of the eastward advancing cold front.

The low pressure center associated with the front is straddling the Indiana and Ohio border and will continue eastward along the zonal 500 mb flow, slowly pushing the cold front across the Ohio River as we continue into tomorrow morning.  Mesoanalysis from the SPC shows a dry pocket of air ahead of the approaching storms.  In addition to the lack of moisture, sundown is approaching, meaning that with the lack of shear in the area, the stabilizing boundary layer overnight will settle us into a mostly dry evening.  Steep lapse rates, however, may produce a random shower before tomorrow morning.

Ultimately, today will be another day like Wednesday.  Our moisture that was in place was advected to the northeast, displacing the severe weather threat away from the county.  A big cool down will be coming over the next several days, bringing us back to spring-like weather.  Check back again on Monday for our next forecast.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young

Slight risk area for Friday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Warren County under a slight risk for severe weather today, as outlined in the graphic below.

Model guidance suggests that a fairly zonal upper level wind pattern will advect low pressure over eastern Illinois eastward into Indiana and Ohio, dragging a cold-front across the area by early Saturday morning.  Given that virtually no lifting mechanism looks to affect our area during the day today and moisture content will be meager, we're expecting scattered coverage across the region, much like we experienced Wednesday.  Southwesterly flow should strengthen during the day to around 20-30 knots, upping dewpoints to the high 50's level.  However, strong CIN should hold off any significant convection until the late evening hours.  By sundown, we're looking for the continual 500 mb height falls, an eroded cap and about 1000 J/kg CAPE to create the chance for scattered thunderstorms.  Updates will be provided later as they become necessary, but for now, Stormtoppers will remain at ALERT status and will not be activating.

Between 7:00 and 8:00 PM, our shot at showers will be at its peak.

Lead Forecaster:  Jeremy Young