Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Forecast 3/29 - 3/31

Highlights:

-- Ridge to build in the area after the passage of the cold front Wednesday.
   bringing clearer skies and a dry Thursday.

-- Next chance for rain coming Friday during the day. Some storms could be severe with the main threat being wind and hail. Temperatures will drop slightly with the passage of the cold front. 

-- Clearing back out Sunday with temperatures warming back up.

Discussion:

After the passage of the cold front Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will build in behind and clear out the skies and leave Thursday dry. Highs will be expected to be in the  mid 70's to 80's with lows in the mid 50's. Friday will bring the next chance for rain as a shortwave trough moves through the area. The southwesterly flow will advect warm moist air into the area. There could be some instability to work with in the way of CAPE values in the 1000 j/kg range and steep mid-level lapse rates. It appears right now that the shortwave will track more through the northern part of Kentucky meaning the best chance for severe weather would be north of our area. However, it is not out the question that Bowling Green could see some severe weather. Like the event from Wednesday, the timing of the cold front will determine the severity of the developing storms. The main threat with this will be high winds and hail. With the passage of this cold front, skies will clear and temperatures will be cooling into the low 70's with lows in the mid 50's. A warm up will come Sunday. 


Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates
Next Update: April 1st

Wednesday Slight Risk Update

SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY UPDATED


Discussion:
The slight risk has been moved north of our area. The cold front has been moving much slower than expected. It is currently situated just outside of Kentucky where storms are beginning to fire from the frontal forcing. 




The CAPE values for Kentucky are currently in the 1000-2000 j/kg range. The best 50 kts wind shear continues to remain north of Bowling Green. Dew points remain in the 60's. The advections are currently to the northeast taking all the instability northeastward to the areas currently involved in the watch. 



All this being said, our best chances for storms will be pushed into late afternoon/evening. They will likely be weaker than expected due to the timing and stabilization of the atmosphere as we move into the evening and lose daytime heating. 


Lead Forecaster: Emily Yates